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Posts: 63
| While I've never fished a tournament myself, Winternet has made me an avid watcher of past PMTT vids (thanks to all you posters). Just wondering if anyone has done any stats (or knows of any published) on the PMTT catches as they correspond to moon phases.
With all those all-stars on the water at the same time, it would sure eliminate a lot of other variables to narrow down a statistical analysis.
Thanks!
-Darryl |
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Posts: 1220
| I’m not aware of any grouping data released by PMTT, but I sure recall the old days of the now dreaded “transport” tournaments. You would be fishing all morning in the desert of no bites, then get a fish, drive five miles to the judges pier, only to find five boats in front of you waiting for their fish to get measured. Very, very few of us back then knew where the moon was, but we all recognized something was making all the fish caught in probably two 15 minutes of any event. |
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Posts: 152
| You could probably look up past pmt catches. Maybe not the time caught but perhaps the day and corralate with moon phase for the day. There are web sites that show moon phases for the past. |
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Posts: 4080
Location: Elko - Lake Vermilion | I'm sure 80% of the field has this information as they are on the Best spots during moon phases.
Marty, You keep a log for Tourneys don't ya ? |
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Posts: 409
Location: Almond, WI | My local league tracks catches with moon phase...and it's pretty surprising. Of the 14 weeks in league last year, 4 had no lunar events so throw those out for now (I'll come back to this). Of the 10 weeks with lunar events, 3 nights 80%, 1 night 75%, 3 nights 50%, 2 nights 17% and 1 night 0% were moon correlated. Okay, so you say that looks like a strong correlation--not so fast my friend! The league average across nights with a lunar event was 5 muskies. If we look at the data from the 4 weeks with no lunar event during league play, the average was 7 muskies...2 muskies MORE than the average of nights with lunar events. Without crunching the numbers it's obvious more muskies were caught without being directly correlated to a lunar event, because remember even of the 10 nights with an event during league play we had 1 night with 0% correlation, 2 with only 17% correlation and 3 nights with 50% correlation. (I'll crunch precise numbers when I have more time.) The most caught in a single night was 12...and it was on a night with no lunar event. That being said, we are fishing dark water flowages, and restricted to 4-9 pm. Given these factors, it's my belief that moon matters less than weather, current, water level, and water clarity in our local environment (possibly temperature too). I've experienced situations where it makes a huge difference, certainly. But it's far from the only factor. If I get the time (not likely), I may try to crunch previous years numbers too, and see if 2018 is a statistical anomaly, but from what I recall of previous years it's pretty typical. |
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Posts: 1220
| People like to downplay lunar influence by comparing it to weather. Weather trumps moon is what they most likely will say. I say , so what, weather is really,really big. That doesn’t make moon small, just different. The biggest problem is that moon works except when it doesn’t work. We don’t know why it applies or doesn’t. I actually think I have a lot of thought about this and that it reflects how tidal forces exist where tides don’t exist. In other words, fish feel whatever the tide would cause even without being in the ocean. People on the salt water know that some high tides can float your boat away right off your lift. Other high tides are virtually unnoticeable. |
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Posts: 572
| "With all those all-stars on the water at the same time, it would sure eliminate a lot of other variables to narrow down a statistical analysis. "
One might think so, but just how many are caught out of 90 to 125 boats each with different views on lures and locations, etc. One might think at least 50 boats would catch a muskie during ideal times...……….duh...NO.
However, I have experienced a few tournaments where several muskies were caught during the moon under foot. That makes me want to be fishing during that time at a good location with favorite lures, etc.
It's hard to ignore being the first in any location. Not sure why I said that except I see others winning by fishing first in a given area. Location is hard to ignore.....
Any way, numbers support your opinion........
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Posts: 63
| Here's how I was thinking about this. We know weather is a huge factor. But if you could look at a single tournament and show that 90% of the fish were caught within a time period of __X__ Minutes, then see where the moon was during that time period. Then do the same for all tournaments with logs.
This would eliminate weather as a contributing factor because all fish caught were caught under the same weather conditions within a given tournament. It would also wash out some of the lure effect as the type of lures used is anticipated to have a high variability. |
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Posts: 1970
| tenthousandand1 - 2/21/2019 7:01 AM
Here's how I was thinking about this. We know weather is a huge factor. But if you could look at a single tournament and show that 90% of the fish were caught within a time period of __X__ Minutes, then see where the moon was during that time period. Then do the same for all tournaments with logs.
This would eliminate weather as a contributing factor because all fish caught were caught under the same weather conditions within a given tournament. It would also wash out some of the lure effect as the type of lures used is anticipated to have a high variability.
So wind just switched from 5 mph out of the east to 15-20 out of the west.. immediately following this wind change 10 of the 12 fish caught that day are caught in the next 2 hours ... weather isn’t the same in a day. In that two hour window some genius will figure out the moon was somewhere ..” it was 3/4 underfoot”. waxing 27% “. Surely that’s why they bite - lol
Edited by IAJustin 2/22/2019 6:48 AM
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