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| Considering i work for a large oil company,how do you guys predict fuel to be 4-5 dollars/gal?? We certainly cannot,and if someone can answer this question,we could figure everything out.
In June of '07,barrels averaged 64.00, and street price average of nl was 3.1995/gal.In Dec. '07 barrels averaged 97.00 with a average street price of 2.9995.??????? i can tell you that barrel price and street price do not reflect one another.
if you work for a major oil company then you know full well that there's a little step in between barrels of crude and pumping unleaded called the "refinery". the mix of demand and a supply that's controlled by the refinery efficiency/capacity is having a larger impact on day-to-day prices at the pump than do the global supply markets.
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Posts: 1316
Location: Lebanon,Mo | That is very true,but i just wanted to reflect to the general public that when they hear barrels jump to over 100.00 they think fuel on street will sky rocket.And now that most of the mid-west states have the new ethanol law effective the first of the year,you can expect prices to drop just a bit,but dont count on it.The first drought that hampers corn/soybean production will cost us more. |
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Posts: 170
| To answer the original question...heck NOOOOOO!
Actually, I'm looking forward to pulling up to a gas station with my rig and filling it up and head out to the water. |
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| Missouri Musky Hunter makes a great point. Gas isn't $4/gal yet, and there's no way in heck to predict that it will be! If you're 100% confident, go make some money off what you think you know. |
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Posts: 8781
| Guest... Oil is a finite resource. Demand is only going to go up. We're not finding more oil, we're not building more refineries, and we are constantly adding more and more demand both here and overseas.
There may be short term fluctuations in price here and there, but over the long term, gas isn't going anywhere but UP. |
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| we were talking about this over the weekend and the days of me running to the cabin on a friday night solo to fish for less than 2 days and return are going to be about over...It won't keep me off the water but it will change where and how long my trips are..instead of quick weekends to the cabin solo, take a 3 or 4 dayer there with a buddy or to MN...gas prices in minocqua this weekend were 3.29 per gallon, that makes a trip up and back all that much more expensive...it won't keep me off the water as I live 15 minutes from some good musky lakes but it will change my trip planning and so forth..
I wouldn't be too surprised to see 3.50 or up this summer...I hope they go down though!
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Posts: 380
Location: Michigan | No doubt the oil reserves are being consumed at an all time high rate, and will only increase exponentially as developing countires industialize. This generation will likely see a world that is forced to develop new sources of fuel, energy, and power.
But... I believe the 100 barrel price we see today is more the result of FEAR & SPECULATION than actual petrolium shortages. The stock market is driving the price just like it is with many other commodities that have been off the radar for 20-30 years. Looks at gold, copper, lead, aluminum, steel... Prices have increased 2, 3, 4 times in just recent years. Yes demand is up because China is buying at record pace, but the finanical and investment community are more responsible for driving those prices.
I don't know... I pay more for products because market prices have gone up, but my 401K keeps growing because my investements continue to yield good returns. Spend it one place make it in another...
Will this change my fishing? Yes it will. I fish big water 90% of the time. It requires 2 hours with the boat behind the truck for a day on the lake, and once on the lake usually requires running around a bit... And then there is trolling. Even with a kicker, $30-40 would be the norm. When all is said and done, a day on the lake is a $70-100 excursion.
I will be fishing maybe 25% less and will try to fish with 3 people when possible. I will try to run my current rig for another year or two, but I see a smaller tow rig and a smaller boat in my future. May have to reduce the number of speciaes and type of fishing as well. Less trolling, and casting smaller areas.
I won't quit fishing, but I will make changes... |
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Posts: 1316
Location: Lebanon,Mo | Back to the org. question...Im fortunate to have the best two musky lakes here in Missouri only an hour away from me.And to have a 40hp four-stroke to help on my wallet.It cost me more to pull the boat back and fourth one time that it does for me to fish three days in the boat.But i do plan to fish east and north i hope this year.
Cut out part of the eating out thing,make all your stops in town in one trip and that will make a diff. in the long run.I would hate to see what we spend on fast food junk in a year.
Edited by missourimuskyhunter 1/7/2008 2:49 PM
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Posts: 785
| Not a chance, I'll eat nothing but two cans of pork and beans a day if thats what it takes to keep fishing. |
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Location: minocqua, wi. | i'll add to what you've put out there Mike ... i work in the plastics industry and spent most of my career with Mobil now of-course known as Exxon-Mobil. in the petrochemicals market the predominate market price indicator is supply and demand with a big influence on producing capacities at the refinery level along with the tie in to major political trade strategy and currency issues which will build another competitor for the demand side (exports) ... the "cost" of the barrel is just another ploy for them to push for increases, but they will fall short without the support of a strong demand. you'll see reactors shut down between competitors (and i believe amongst them as well) to put the market "in-position" during lower demand times for an increase regardless of how much the barrel costs in the first place. none of this is absolute as it's obvious that 40 bucks a barrel vs. 100 bucks is a player as well ... but, right now our currency sits at an all-time historic low against foreign currencies making imports more expensive than ever ... that factor is huge ... so, you've got an expensive raw material (based on currency) and a strong export market demand (for the same reason) coupled by a domestic situation that leaves it's customers as just another revenue stream ... there are no priorities to "take care of our own" in playing the global market game for companies especially big oil companies and at this moment the sun is shining and they are making hay ...
in our market "plastics" the feedstocks are natural gas and should be most influenced by the demand for natural gas for heating ... (basically cold and long heating seasons = high plastics prices), but the clowns will try everything to tie plastics to a barrel of oil if they think they can get away with it ... yet they couldn't be further from each other ... essentially without any relationship at all ...
the export demand is a big thing ... i buy all of my plastic raw materials from the u.s. ... convert them in asia, get a credit for buying from the u.s. over there and then get a discount for my product tariff here because of the percentage of u.s. materials contained ...
the market changed 10 years ago and toledo is now singapore and los angelis is now taipei ... new york is dubai and atlanta is delhi ...
love it or hate it ... it's the world we live in and the world our children will have to embrace and be capable of competing in ... |
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Posts: 8781
| jonnysled - 1/7/2008 3:07 PM
... it's the world we live in and the world our children will have to embrace and be capable of competing in ...
after they spend a few years being pissed off at it, blaming us for screwing it up so badly, thinking they are going to change it, and insisting they can do a better job with it than anyone has in the past...
Just sayin'  |
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Posts: 4080
Location: Elko - Lake Vermilion | Sooo,
With all of the gloom and doom speculators out there does this mean that I will be able to buy a new 21 ft. Ranger or Tuffy at a extremely discounted price because no one except me will be able to afford one.! Lol, Ha,Ha,Ha.
SWEET!!
I love this Country!...... Isn't capitalism a hoot!!!
More time on the water for me in 2008.
Jerome |
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Posts: 13688
Location: minocqua, wi. | like i told my kids when their mom and dad divorced ... "you don't like it, i don't like it ... it's not fair to you, but tough schitdt ... it is now your life and you've got the choice ... cry in it and let it destroy you or figure it out and move on" ... everyone is happier and better off now because we live in what we live in rather than pretending it's something different and that there's nothing we can do about it ...
the world isn't "changing" or "going to change" ... IT ALREADY DID and to be honest it did so a long time ago ... our country's population is just the last one's to figure it out ...
while we're getting pissed about the rest of the world not "speaking our language" the rest of the world is training it's youth to speak even more foreign languages so that they can communicate and do business with them and welcome them to do more ...
while we're crying about losing 2 buildings ... the rest of the world built 5 taller than the ones we haven't rebuilt ...
while we're out in the world protecting people ... at home we're building a record consumer debt (whose interest is paid to the saudi's who own the banks issuing the cards) without sacrificing much of anything and complaining about the price of oil ...
and i've got another soapbox that lambeau and slamr don't let me stand on ... |
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Posts: 1996
Location: Pelican Lake/Three Lakes Chain | Top H2O - 1/7/2008 3:20 PM
Sooo,
With all of the gloom and doom speculators out there does this mean that I will be able to buy a new 21 ft. Ranger or Tuffy at a extremely discounted price because no one except me will be able to afford one.
Jerome
I don't know about 21'ers, but I have a 19' Tuffy you can have a whack at! |
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Posts: 4080
Location: Elko - Lake Vermilion |
Sled,
Good stuff man! Keep it coming.. We (Americans) are way to spoiled and have such a "cushy" life compared to the rest of the world.
Jerome
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Posts: 512
| Going back to the original question:
YES, the prices will keep me off the water. At $2.50 / gal, I would still haul my boat 1+-to-2 hrs. to fish. At $4+ / gal, NOT nearly as much. Will pick my days and stay longer and try spots closer to home.
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Posts: 1663
Location: Kodiak, AK | I'll make adjustments elsewhere. I'm transferring back to Detroit (and not back to my beloved Kodiak) purely for the fishing. I plan on getting a house nearer the lake just so I don't have to drive as far to get to the lake.
Jeff |
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Location: Apple Valley | Gas prices won't stop me from fishing. I drive 75 miles a day to work (round trip) . My problem is I can't stop buying baits!!!!!
Brian |
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Posts: 431
| Gas prices have kept me from taking daily trout fishing trips this spring. I am planning on slowing down with the boat in tow. When I'm at Kinkaid next week I plan on sleeping in my Jeep. I've just finished law school, so I have a bunch of debt and no income. But, I'm only young and free for so long. |
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Location: Green Bay, WI | Very interesting thread...
I agree that the world has probably changed for good, and it doesn't seem too likely that we'll ever see gas prices much below $3/gal again. It's amazing what you can get used to. But the underlying theme that seems to run through this thread is that, at least for most, higher gas prices mean less time running around--and more frugal use of monetary resources (and of gas!). So maybe the higher gas prices are a blessing in disguise, in some ways?
As for fishing, I am extremely fortunate to have a great job in Green Bay--and live 10 miles from the landing. While the bay is a huge place, a person can fish it pretty economically. With a Pro-Kicker on my Tyee, I can troll 8-10 hours for only about 3-4 gallons, it seems. And my Verado trolls at 0.6 gph at 2.75-3 mph. So that's about $10-20 per day if you use the kicker more than the big engine, considering that you can start trolling near the landings. Of course there's always casting as well, but areas of the bay itself are do big that it takes an awful long time to cover much water...but it certainly can be done.
I keep telling people that a $350 fuel flow gauge is worth it's weight in gold...
TB
Edited by tcbetka 5/17/2008 10:52 AM
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Posts: 4266
| Interesting post indeed.
This started in January with some calling it 'speculation'. Well now it's May, and speculation has turned into reality with gas hitting the $4 mark here in Milwaukee and elsewhere, and now the speculation is looking to the $5 mark and GWB asking Saudi Arabia to boost production. One of the remarks made by the Saudi's was..We are producing more than enough for consumption. Your country just consumes too much and must change it's practices.
I may not see Vilas County this year, much less MN.
I'll be spending more time on Pewaukee and might venture out to Madison as well.
My only other viable option is to sell the house and move to MN, where I'll be closer to more waters. |
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Posts: 4053
Location: Land of the Musky | ChunkN-Wind
MN is happy to have you spend your money here! We need to fix some bridges and need all the gas tax $$$ we can get |
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Posts: 2024
| I hope not, but in all likelihood... yes. I have started a "muskie fishing expenditures" Excel spreadsheet to keep track of my spending. I shudder to think of the cost per fish, but at the end of the season I will calculate that. If for nothing else than @#$%s and giggles. I suspect, though, that it will help me budget this upcoming year. As others have said, cut out the fast food stops, unnecessary trips into town, unnecessary bait purchases (wait, is there such a thing?), etc.
If anyone is interested in the Excel sheet shoot me an email. It has a sheet for annual expenditures (which includes maintenance of both boat and truck, electronics purchases, sport show purchases, etc.) and trip expenditures (launch fees, gas to lake, lodging, guide fees, etc.) as well.
It's gonna be an interesting season... |
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Posts: 1504
Location: Oregon | Won't stop me but it definitely makes me do a better job of planning the best possible trip I can. The days of grabbing the boat and running to the river 50 miles each way for a half day of fishing are not going to be as common.
RM |
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Posts: 1287
Location: WI | I'll be fishing close to home this season. The bonus is that it's better water anyway, but a little less scenic. |
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Posts: 7038
Location: Northwest Chicago Burbs | For me it's a big yes. There isnt a place within 150 miles of my town that is boat accessable that is worth driving to for muskies at $4/gallon. So it's big pond for the summer except for a trip to St. Clair in June for three days and Canada in August. |
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Posts: 284
Location: Fishing the weeds | Fishing is my release from my business. I don't care if it's $100 per gallon. I'm going fishing. Pat |
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Posts: 395
Location: NW WI | castmaster - 1/5/2008 4:58 PM
Its not just gas thats affecting my ability to hit the water. Its the increase in health care costs, increases in grocery costs(Heck I'm spending almost $30 a week just on milk!) etc etc etc.
Couple that with the fact I have taken about 15% cut in pay since 2001 and as much as its sucks I am fishing less, especially musky fishing. I can hit the river here in town and get some walleye angling in but for the most part I'm looking at at least a $100 bill to get out for the day musky fishing. As my daughter gets older(just spent over $5000 on braces) I just dont have a whole lot of $100 days in my wallet these days.
Man you gotta love "trickle down" economics!!
castmaster said it pretty well for our stiuation...lots more to the story but in the end it doesn't really matter. LOTS less fishing this year.... |
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Posts: 4053
Location: Land of the Musky | Higher gas prices should mean bigger fish some day... |
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Posts: 128
| Let's see here..... I was thinking about hitting Mlle Lacs Carp tomorrow. And then filled the tank in my gas hog that tows the boat. $80.00 for a fill. That gets me up to the lake and about halfway back towing the boat........Another $20.00 to get home. My dumbass boat holds over 50 gallons of gas, although I obviously am not going to burn through that unless I'm running all over. Over $120 bucks for a quick trip to the lake. Yes I'll be doing it less. |
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