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More Muskie Fishing -> Muskie Biology -> Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi
 
Message Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi

Posted 7/29/2002 4:18 PM (#1938)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Hi all you Muskie hunters. Here's some web site links that I've found most interesting relative to the subject line above.

Hope you enjoy.

Al Warner

www.youdontknowhowtowatchtv.com



Here's the real links.htm[:bigsmile:]

http://www.punaridge.org/doc/factoids/Default.htm
http://www.seafriends.org.nz/phgraph/water.htm
http://members.aol.com/dsusdive/page77.htm

ToddM- check out the aquacolor "Model of the Month" - well maybe not June!

http://www.aquacolor.com/Smptestrt.htm
http://www.aquacolor.com/Tech.htm
http://www.aquacolor.com/kim.htm

http://www.adventuredives.com/phototer.htm
http://www.unk.edu/acad/biology/hoback/bio407/407lecture5.html
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~etrnsfer/water.htm
http://webexhibits.org/causesofcolor/5B.html
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/pcourty/english.htm
http://www.at-sea.org/missions/biomedical/051000/dispatch.html
http://www.sbu.ac.uk/water/vibrat.html
http://www.serc.si.edu/water_quality/water_quality_html/water.

Muskies Vision
http://www.trentu.ca/muskie/biology/biol07.html
http://www.schools.net.au/edu/lesson_ideas/optics/optics_wksht4_p1....
http://www.iitp.ru/projects/posters/cornea/

Posted 7/29/2002 10:27 PM (#39713)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Al, lots of great info and your right, june is bad, really bad. BAD JUNE BAD JUNE![:knockout:]

Posted 7/29/2002 11:52 PM (#39714)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Anon- Wow! I didn't include ESR because it was an oversight. Jason Long's article on Color Concept's certainly warrants contemplation by any serious Muskie angler.
http://www.esoxresearch.com/erc_web/articles/a3/a3.htmlPurkinje Shift

The ability to read & memorise is not to uncommon. The ability to read , memorise + learn and connect the dots in what you've reading is another story. Can you pronounce Purkijie Shift? If you read Jason's article perhaps you could apply it to your fishing endeavor's. Without it, you'd probably be just as in the dark as you were before you read this post.

Calling anyone a nerd is petty and is a poor refelction of your own character. If you have something meaningful to add to the subject of this post, I'd be happy to hear it. I'm in no way affiliated with ESR, nor am I a personal friend of Jason Long's. I respect any writer/author who can clearly communicate highly technical content to some of us lesser mortals. I don't necessarily agree with everything he say's, but I respect him for saying it.

Perhap's if you removed the rose colored glasses and adjusted your attitude, I would consider the first part of what you had to say as valid "Wow! That’s great info. " Did you go and read the information in each link? Did you gain anything from them? If so, good. My approach is a little different than Jason's, i.e., he puts it together for you and all the dot's are connected. Whereas, I show you where information resides and see if your brain has the ability to recognise the dot's and connect them.

So stop your penis envey/whining & go out there and show me something! If you're the judge of Muskie God's let see it.

Most of all don't belittle people that are obviously trying to help you be a better fisherman. If they make a buck at it, they're ahead of most of us and they shouldn't have to appologize for it either. You have choices- life is full of them.

Yes-I'll also admit I don't like anon's. It's to easy to take cheap shot's and not be held up to scrutiny by those who read your postings. If you want my respect-sign your name.


Al Warner

www.youdontknowhowtowatchtv.com

Posted 7/30/2002 6:34 AM (#39715)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Let us NOT FORGET--> the "whizzing contests" are over once the boot is full! [::)]

Posted 7/30/2002 7:22 AM (#39716)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Thanks for sharing the incredible websites Al! They sure illustrate some confusing subjects well... making it easier for "nerds" to understand and apply.

One thing I found interesting is that in some cases certain color patterns I use thinking I am offering a more visible lure.... is actually more camouflaged. Perhaps a LESS visible lure is better during peak light intensity conditions? Cool stuff for geeks who like to catch lots of BIG muskies on a consistent basis.

Posted 7/30/2002 8:02 AM (#39717)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


I can attest. Jason is a nerd. [:p]

Posted 7/30/2002 10:06 AM (#39718)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Spongey One- The bladder is empty![:0] [:bigsmile:]

Jason- I guess there's some type of concensus forming about your degree of nerdiness.

What I also found most interesting was the yellow colored cornea information. Certainly casts a "new light" on some things and I think also helps explain some of the feeding behaviors. If the cornea color gives the Muskie the ability to unmask the prey's natural camoflage and to enhance colors under low light conditions, I wouldn't want to be either a perch hanging out in a cabbage bed or a lone cisco venturing out of the school in deep water when ole' yellow eyes is hungry.

Now when you combine the vision advantages of the yellow cornea with Svenning and S-strike acceleration, you have a top teir predator that can use a broader section of the available water volume to forage and feed sucessfully.

I think research into the actual optical properties of the Muskie's cornea would be most interesting, Especially if you could link the optical properties to the Muskie's color vision spectrum (cone cell color response). Getting cornea's and eye's for disection & analysis shouldn't be to difficult, i.e., contact taxidermist's that specialize in Muskie mounts.

I'm also very interested in the cornea color variation. Can they change the degree of coloration? Is there variation between strains of Muskies? Unfortunately all of this is probably a good subject for a student thesis, and it's not something that we're going to see anytime soon if ever.

That leaves us with speculation! [:bigsmile:]

Al warner

www.icantplayfindmyfoot.com

Posted 7/30/2002 11:08 AM (#39719)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Al,
Speculation is my specialty!!!!! If I am an expert at anything.... it is speculation. When you speculate you can sound smart and have no risk of being proven wrong.[:halo:]

The yellow lens phenomena has been talked about before.... especially when talking about OLD fish. If given a choice, I'd rather see some classical research (and thesis reports) done on Svenning and the entire lateral line connection over the cornea work. But, beggars can't be choosy. Besides, if someone proves how all this works... then what will we talk about on these message boards[:bigsmile:]

I think the websited you referenced present a complicated subject in a simple format. If most fisherman can relate how the water surface and angle of the sun affects light intensity/penetration they can be "smarter" about where to look for ski' and what to throw at 'em. But, that is where the speculation comes in.

As for my "nerdiness"..... that is simply an internet thing. My good looks make up for my off-beat intellect.[;)]

Posted 7/30/2002 11:43 AM (#39720)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


I was just kidding Jason. You’re not that big of a nerd. I was just teasing you because I know I can get away with it. I bet you wish you had never slipped up and revealed your lake X,Y and Z to me. Blackmail is beautiful.
Sorry to take away from the topic, I find this stuff interesting. I understand all of the information and concepts, but find myself trying to apply it in a way to confirm or justify what I’m already doing. In any fishing situation I’m in I can apply some concept or theory to give confidence in what I’m doing at that moment, whether it’s right or wrong. Like the subject said “powerful confusion”

Posted 7/30/2002 3:03 PM (#39721)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Jason- Now I'd like to see Joe Bucher's "moon phase tables" (http://www.joe-bucher.com/moonphases.html) have the ability to include the "Muskie Twilight Time" a.k.a. MTT (you saw it first on MuskieFirst), i.e., when the sun is 30 deg above horizon.
I am the God of speculation!!! Now I've speculated up a new term for all the Muskie fisherman. f. ex. I nailed the fat sow at 21 minutes past MTT! [:sun:]

Guess I'll just have to get the ole sextant out & calculate the correction factor's to allow me to compute MTT using the other twilight's. My only problem is all the darn trees, hills, etc. around my house makes getting a clear reference to the horizon a real bear. Back to the drawing board. Problems are just solutions waiting to happen.

I can see it now! Wahooo -> big $$$$$ Increase your Muskie fishing success by using ESOX Maniac's MTT Tables. [:0] [:bigsmile:] You Muskie anglers better start sending me your money now! If I'm not home just shove the cash under the door. [:p] Perhaps I should consult my product marketing expert, i.e., the very first person to realise the true benefits to mankind for the Poppeil Pocket Fisherman, a.k.a. Sponge Bob.

Sponge- what do you think? Are we (am I) going to be millionaire(s)? [:0] Imagine the impact on the Muskie fishing industry! NOooooooooo, we can't do it. It's not fair to the Muskies, do ya think?

Gotta hit the water it's almost Muskie Twilight Time!

Al Warner


www.icantplayfindmyfoot.com

Posted 7/30/2002 4:04 PM (#39722)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Al,
MTT triggers the Purkinje Shift.

With that observation, can I share in your MILLIONS?????

Posted 7/30/2002 5:21 PM (#39723)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Jason- You bet, you get half, even though you didn't specify MTT triggered the "underwater" Purkinje Shift. Now better known as Muskie Twilight Time (MTT)->(thanks to my shameless behavior). Haa, Haaaaaa! Because I stole shamelessly from your article, I'll send you half the cash they stuff under my door. Forgive me, oh great Muskie God! I am but a poor addicted Muskie fisherman with a quest for knowledge.


However, you must admit-> I am still the God of Speculation- and you may call me by my real name-> Theee.. God of Speculation!!!!!...........

Al Warner


www.whenthepurkinjeshiftisonunderwateritsmuskietwilighttime.com


Posted 7/31/2002 8:37 AM (#39724)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Thanks Al but after the Pocket Fisherman, uncle Ron has gone steadily downhill...all he can think about is Turkey Basters + cheap trinkets; last time I saw him he ignored his own daughter + spoke incessantly on how many meals he could whip up in 30 minutes. I now find him repugnent + disgusting + have trashed his products + taken down his life size poster in the kitchen; also gone is the "I'm related to Ron Popiel" sign in the front yard[:(] If $$$ could buy common sense, I'd go broke trying to pay for it![:sun:]

Posted 7/31/2002 9:12 AM (#39725)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


To All: Although it may appear that both Jason & I are in need of psychotherapy. What we are discussing here in a rather absurd fashion is relative to Muskie fishing. The Purkinje shift is real, it's not psuedoscience. The Purkinje Shift can occur both above water and below water. The "new" term that I created "Muskie Twilight Time (MTT), is the times of day when the underwater Purkinje Shift should occur. This happens when the sun reaches ~ 30 degrees above the horizon. If you want to understand this phenomena a bit more, the following website is very good->http://www.seafriends.org.nz/phgraph/water.htm Even though this site is an underwater photography site it is excellent and has much information relative to the interaction of light and water.

OK- So Muskie Twilight Time (MTT) will occur rather predictably when the sun reaches ~30 degrees above the horizon. The effects are different whether the sun is rising or setting, i.e., the time(s) of day when the sun is at about the 4 O'Clock position in the sky (30 degrees above horizon-not 4:00 O'Clock local time). If the sun is setting there will be a sudden decrease in light underwater and if it's rising there will be sudden increase. (sudden being a relative term). There will be no noticable change above water. So it's not something you will see as a fisherman. But the Muskies and other fish will see it. Now the degree of shift (intensity change)is also affected by other factors like, clouds, water surface conditions, etc.

Given a Muskie's eyes (yellow corneas') are most advantageous in low light conditions, I can use MTT to determine when I should be really hammering my hot spot's on a given day. Afternoon MTT= fish from MTT until or after dark. Morning MTT = fish from before sunrise to MTT, then go get some breakfast.

Do you catch more Muskies during early morning and late afternoon on sunny day's? Sunny days are when the Purkinje Shift is going to be most dramatic. Cloudy days are another story. Also like Jason say's, this might be a good time to think about lure color change, etc, especially if nothing's happening.



Al Warner

www.icantplayfindmyfoot.com

Posted 7/31/2002 12:20 PM (#39726)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


..... and don't forget that the sun angle changes with the seasons. An October sun isn't the same as a July sun.

Perhaps this may explain why October Orange has proven itself over time as a Big Fish Producer in late fall? Just a thought....

Speculation, conjecture, theory, flat out guesses, supposition, etc. are all part of the game[:praise:]

Posted 7/31/2002 3:43 PM (#39727)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Jason- Yup! That's what makes it hard to predict MTT as to exact time of day.... But the angle of incidence for MTT is still the same. i.e., sun = 30 degrees above the horizon. I think that the October sun's warm color spectrum is illuminating your October Orange lure. But once again-> just pure speculation!!!!

More room for speculation--> Does yellow work better in July?

Al Warner

www.spongebobismypsyhcotherapist.com[:sun:]




Posted 7/31/2002 5:25 PM (#39728)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


What would you speculate as to the difference between direct and indirect light, as it relates to the 30 degree rule? In other words, will high shorelines or high tree lines affect the angle, and by how much?

Posted 7/31/2002 5:32 PM (#39729)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Chartruese or lime green should be #1 under MMT (Purkinje Shift) conditions. WHY? Because the eye is most sensitive to the GREEN spectrum at that time.... so green and yellows will be most visible. Now, whether yellow is more effective in July.... well.... that would assume that the most visible color is the most productive. It would also assume that there may be some "color" due color due to a "green" algae growth during that warm water period. Toss in the supposed increase in light intensity due to the sun's July postion and that whole "yellow lens" cornea thing might come into play as well. At least in October, the water is cool enough that it is often at its highest clarity of the season and things are a little less "complicated".

Some may think this is total BS.... while others may see it as a revalation. I'll settle for useful speculation[:halo:]

Al, are we talking amongst ourselves here????

Posted 8/1/2002 8:09 AM (#39730)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


I’m still listening guys. From what I’ve read I believe y’all have discovered that fishing should be better in the mornings and evenings, and that my firetiger/perch baits will work sometimes. I believe that’s what has transpired, but I’m out of my league here. Any big words I use came out of the thesaurus, and thank God for spell check. Ghoti touched on what my grandma used to tell me, “When the sun is behind the treetops the walleyes start to bite”.

Posted 8/1/2002 10:58 AM (#39731)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Ghoti, you ask a good question. Direct sunlight means your lure has the option of specular reflection. What that means is your metallic/smooth surfaces can produce a huge blast or burst of light in a single direction. This is important when calling fish up from great distances.

When the angle of the sun is low enough that you must rely on the relative intensity of ambient light.... painted surfaces in the most visible color become more effective at producing "flash".

I don't know if fishing is necessarily "better" when the sun is at a low angle.... but I will often change my color selection based on it. Direct sun = metallics.... ambient light = painted surface. Certainly not a rule to live and die by... but something I consider when staring into my box of hundreds of lures and trying to decide which "pretty" color will get wet (and eaten) next.

Again, many of these assumptions are based on the probability and statistics that a more visible lure has a better chance of getting eaten. That obviously is not always the case. Secondly, light conditions also control fish location.... and depending where a fish is located.... color might not mean crap.

I just can't get enough of all this speculation. Pure heaven. On the internet all of this stuff works. In the real world.... who knows????

Posted 8/1/2002 11:32 AM (#39732)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


ghoti- Now it get's a bit complicated. MTT effect is most pronounced on clear sunny days and only where the sun is in direct view of the specific point on the water.

If the sun is behind clouds the effect will be less pronounced, because of scatter/reflection as the light passes through the cloud. However some direct sunlight will/always makes it through, even though you may not be able to percieve it.

If the sun is behind the tree's or if the sun is blocked by a cliff the predominent light source is indirect, i.e., from diffusion/scatter of the sun's ray's and relected light from surrounding objects.

nxtwrldrcd - I don't think we've discovered that you should fish morning & evening, Only demonstrating one factor that makes sense as to why you are sucessful or why you should consider this phenomena as part of your stradegy.

I think there's something here that many have missed.

F. ex. I'm on LOTW and know where there's a "hot spot" reef complex in mid-lake. It's forecasted to be a calm hot sunny August day. Do I go out there and fry my brains & body all day long? No! Most of us would say I'll hit it in the morning or evening.

Now most of you will probably time your fishing on this complex to when you percieve the light level dropping, i.e., sunset or sunrise itself. Whereas, I know that MTT will occur on that reef complex x-hrs before sunset or x hrs after sunrise. The underwater light is going to drop by up to 50% at afternoon MTT. Do you think a 50% light level change is going to affect the Muskies around that reef complex? So I'm going to be out there fishing it x hr's before you arrive. Reverse scenario is true of morning MTT. Light level will increase by up to 50%, you may have abandoned a perfectly good spot at sunrise because you thought it was to light out. Whereas, I'd still be fishing it x-hrs up untill MTT ends.

This can also be applied to deep water trolling, etc.

This underwater shift in light intensity is not something you can see from above in your boat. The hard part is predicting the times of day when the sun will be at 30 degrees above the horizon. My best guess is that it's going to occur 3 to 4 hours before sunset or after sunrise. Of course you could carry a sextant, but that doesn't help from a planning perspective. Myself I'd like to head out, pull up on that complex and know I was there at the right time. I'm working on that MTT prediction part. If we can predict sunrise & sunset we should be able to predict MTT. If anyone has any idea's let me know.

Like Jason said, maybe I can also use this to decide on lure color selection and also know when to try a lure change up.

Jason- I guess the discussion is amongst ourselves! But just not in private.[:0] I wish we could expand "ourselves". But what the hey- it's fun to speculate fish into the boat.


Al Warner

www.spongebobismypsychotherapist.com

Posted 8/1/2002 11:39 AM (#39733)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


I'm still listening and learning too guys. I'd join in, but as nxtwrldrcd said, "I'm out o my league here!" The only thing my grandma ever told me bout fishin' was, "Ya can't ketch em if'n ya don't keep yer bait in the water!"


Posted 8/1/2002 3:15 PM (#39734)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Geez Al, if you REALLY want to calculate MTT it isn't that hard to get a CRUDE estimate.

For example:

Sunrise = 5:30 am and Sunset = 8:30 pm

That means it takes the sun about 15 hours (900 minutes) to travel across the sky (assume 180 degrees). Divide distance by time and you determine the sun moves 0.2 degrees per minute. If MTT is the time it takes for the sun to move 30 degrees from horizontal (sunrise or sunset) then you simply divide 30 by the sun's travel speed (0.2 degrees per minute) and you establish that your MTT time for this day is about 150 minutes (2 1/2 hours) after sunrise and before sunset.

That is a pretty large window of opportunity. Unfortunately, I don't think it takes that long for the musky's eye to adjust (shift) so the first part of MTT should be the best. Unfortunately, there are so many other environmental factors involved (cloud cover, wind/wave action, etc.) that it becomes almost impossible to predict.

My conclusion: If given the option.... fish ALL DAY!!!!!




Posted 8/1/2002 6:21 PM (#39735)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


AAaaahhhhhhhhh! my young nerdy friend. Your approximation is very crude. The crude theory would be true if the sun actually followed the 180 degree path you described. But alas the sun doesn't convienently follow this path. The earth's rotation just makes it appear to move across the sky. Then add the fact the earth is also moving with respect to the sun, the problem becomes more complex.

I have sent some messages to even more nerdy people, i.e., the types who develop great joy in telling us when the sun will rise and set in a specific location on a given date.

One site I've found can gives me sunrise & set + Astronmical Twilight (18 deg below horizon)- Nautical Twilight (12 deg below horizon) and Twilight (6 degrees below horizon) . Now I assume zero degrees is sunset/sunrise.

If I pick a specific date, i.e. Sept 23rd (Cass Lake MN)I get the following data

Twi A: 5:21AM SS: 7:16PM
Twi N: 5:59AM Twi: 7:46PM
Twi: 6:35AM Twi N: 8:22PM
SR: 7:05AM Twi A: 9:00PM

Total daytime SR -> SS = 14hrs 10 min = 850 minute/180 = 4.722222 minutes per degree * 30 = 141.666666.....

Using your nerdy little approximation MTT should be @ 9:27AM & 4:54PM

Twi A -> Twi N = 38 min
Twi N -> Twi = 36 min
Twi -> SR/SS = 30 min

Clearly the sun moved 18 degrees with respect to the horizon in 104 minutes. But it's apparent velocity is also changing with every degree of movement. Now I could guess the same mathematical progression ocurrs until it reaches apex above the point of observation. Therefore, we could graph it and get a reasonable approximation Obviously this is getting complex. Yes your method is probably close enough- but my psychotherapist says I have to listen to the little voices. [:0] [8)] [:((] [:(] [:knockout:]

Al Warner

www.spongebobismypsychotherapist.com

Posted 8/1/2002 9:07 PM (#39736)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Al,
If you bring calculus into this discussion.... the discussion is over. But, I think a good point was raised. We don't need to be EXACT.... just conscious of some of the things that happen around us and learn to take advantage of them (if possible). In fact, your title of this thread clearly depicts that.

Thank god I'm only a nerd on the internet[:p]

Posted 8/2/2002 6:02 AM (#39737)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Jason- [:bigsmile:] No calculus! BTW: for the rest of you who are interested in sun/moon rise etc. Here's the site you can use -> http://www.sunrisesunset.com


You can even get data for lake X by entering latitude & longitude.



Al Warner

www.spongebobismypsychotherapist.com

Posted 8/2/2002 7:46 AM (#39738)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Sextant, calculator,light meter,Dopler receiver and monitor for local weather conditions, computer for S.R./S.S. printouts, jeeez-now I have to get a bigger boat.[:blackeye:]

Posted 8/2/2002 8:31 AM (#39739)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


ghoti..... BIGGER BATTERIES too!

Really though, I'd like to stress to people that this kind of stuff creates INFORMATION OVERLOAD if you stress out about it when on the water. Think about it at home, in your office, on the drive to the lake.... but do NOT spend much time thinking about it on the water. Basically, the OFF the water exercise we are doing here on the message boards is simply a way to help develop that mysterious "SIXTH SENSE" that some people seem to possess. Keeping these "deep thoughts" in your subconscious while actually out fishing helps prevent confusion, lack of confidence, and paranoia.... all the while helping you fish SMARTER and more successfully.

The more gadgets you have in your boat to play with, the more lures you have to choose from, the more crazy ideas your mind generates..... can all become distractions..... which equate to less efficient time on the water..... which usually means less fish in the boat. Please keep this in mind when we SPECULATE here in this forum.

Posted 8/2/2002 10:42 AM (#39740)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Very true NWR...BUT...suppose the bank is lined w/ pines, not hardwoods....will the sun still have the same effect behind needles as it would behind leaves? The Gypsy Moth population may also play an important factor in both leafage + needleage, depending on the type tree lining the bankage. I think that the acidity of the water in a pine lined cove plays an intrical part in this equation; in fact fish caught in these areas tend to smell "piney" rather than "musky", something else to think about. Baits made from pine tend to work best in these areas also. I only posted this hard to come by knowledge to prove the misconcieved notion that I am mentally incoherent + to dispell the idea that all southerners are stupid + should be under constant sedation. [:0]

Posted 8/2/2002 8:31 PM (#39741)
Subject: Muskies + Water + Color + Light = Powerful Confusi


Good post jlong,
I certainly am not that analytical when on the water because sometimes I just enjoy fishing without asking all the questions. But like you when I spend two hours in the truck going to the lake I think about the muskie and my trip and these ideas are pondered. Sometimes it pans out and sometimes not.
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