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Posts: 1247
Location: Walker, MN | Angling Oracle - 9/19/2022 3:22 PM
I'm not sure what to make of it. What is the fishing effort related to catch? I think would need multivariate analysis to tease out the effects of weather: barometric pressure, water temp, cloud cover, temp rise/fall, wind and wind direction and so on to be able to hint at some moon effect.
In my science based view, the only significance moon phase could have is potential correlations with mayfly or chironomid hatches, zooplankton, mysis shrimp or freshwater mussel spawinng activity, or potentially spawning activity of emerald or spottail shiners - all of which would "turn on" the water column. Some of these are annual occurrences that may or may not be associated with the moon in some way, but more likely a combination of temperature and daylight cues.
The success of folks that believe in moon phase is a combination of increased confidence, fishing prime locations, and fishing for a bite, which is always a recipe for success and really is what makes one an effective musky angler to begin with.
This describes my initial impression of the graphic.
The graph seems very flat to me, subtle differences could easily be attributed to angler effort. I put some stock in m.u.f., but feel I can predict windows more consistently by paying attention to sky conditions. |
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Location: Athens, Ohio | With that many catches over how many years, any differences between the phases may not be 'statistically significant'. However, the numbers 'is what they is'. m |
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Posts: 121
Location: Twin Cities Metro | I have been fishing without regard to moon phases or moon times for a few years now. This is so I don't bias data by angling for pre-located fish at so-called "peak times", etc... I keep detailed logs of all outings, including catches with timestamps. I analyze the data for each season during the winter. This analysis includes catch per unit effort for all time periods, regardless of proximity to a so-called "lunar event".
My data currently show no correlation between muskie activity and lunar position. |
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Posts: 2330
Location: Chisholm, MN | RobertK - 9/27/2022 9:58 AM
I have been fishing without regard to moon phases or moon times for a few years now. This is so I don't bias data by angling for pre-located fish at so-called "peak times", etc... I keep detailed logs of all outings, including catches with timestamps. I analyze the data for each season during the winter. This analysis includes catch per unit effort for all time periods, regardless of proximity to a so-called "lunar event".
My data currently show no correlation between muskie activity and lunar position.
What's your sample size? |
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Posts: 166
Location: Cedarburg, WI. | RobertK hit on something i always wondered and think would be hard to quantify. So hear are my questions. Is it the moon? Or is that people that pay attention to the moon pull up to their best spot or spots and are extra focused? Like precision casts, great figure 8's, etc, etc...
Maybe a combo of both? Again hard to quantify i guess. |
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Posts: 8787
| Well... This is anecdotal evidence at best, but I "discovered" the moon thing many years ago when a girlfriend of mine was looking through my fishing pictures and laughing about how I was wearing the same shirt in a lot of them. She counted. It was embarrassing. Then she said: "and look at how many of your pictures have the moon in the background!" "I usually have good luck when the moon first comes up!" I said. She was one of those hippie wiccan broads who believe the stars and planets align and vampires come out and all that crap... Anyway I started reading about it. Always thought it was more of a saltwater/tidal thing until I read Alden's book. I'd say I might be expecting a fish more during the majors, but I sure don't save good spots or anything, or fish any harder. If musky fishing has taught me anything it's that you had best be ready on every cast because you can go all day without seeing a fish and then put 3 in the net all in a matter of a few minutes for no apparent reason. Believe me, I've been trying to find a reason why fish do what they do when they do it since 1973. The only difference now is I have a few pretty good theories. Some backed by science, some backed by experience, some just because. Like why what hat you're wearing seems to matter... |
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| Masqui-ninja - 9/21/2022 7:30 AM
Angling Oracle - 9/19/2022 3:22 PM
I'm not sure what to make of it. What is the fishing effort related to catch? I think would need multivariate analysis to tease out the effects of weather: barometric pressure, water temp, cloud cover, temp rise/fall, wind and wind direction and so on to be able to hint at some moon effect.
In my science based view, the only significance moon phase could have is potential correlations with mayfly or chironomid hatches, zooplankton, mysis shrimp or freshwater mussel spawinng activity, or potentially spawning activity of emerald or spottail shiners - all of which would "turn on" the water column. Some of these are annual occurrences that may or may not be associated with the moon in some way, but more likely a combination of temperature and daylight cues.
The success of folks that believe in moon phase is a combination of increased confidence, fishing prime locations, and fishing for a bite, which is always a recipe for success and really is what makes one an effective musky angler to begin with.
This describes my initial impression of the graphic.
The graph seems very flat to me, subtle differences could easily be attributed to angler effort. I put some stock in m.u.f., but feel I can predict windows more consistently by paying attention to sky conditions.
Interesting comment about the sky. Steve Heiting was doing part of a musky seminar in Rhinelander right before the pandemic and he brought up the sky. He showed some pics of an unusual cloud pattern. I don't remember the name of it but he said he really had not noticed while fishing but while going over pics of good fish from a number of trips and locations, he noticed that cloud pattern a number of times, much more than chance would account for. There were several cloud patterns he mentioned but that odd one really struck me as being different.
He too said, the best time to fish is when you can but, if you get that cloud pattern, don't leave the water. |
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Posts: 1419
Location: Brighton CO. | I believe he talks of white sky? Perhaps Seagull colored Top Raider. (I could be wrong) |
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Posts: 625
Location: S.W. WI | I have 20 years of fishing pretty much same days every week, all year long. I fish a lot. I kept pretty detailed records for first 15 years, and still log catches. I can confidently say this whole moon thing has shown to be little to no bearing FOR ME- where I fish- in N. Wi. and Canada. Maybe it matters in MN, it may well- I don't pretend like so many do to know. But for me, its a non factor. There has been a few times it seemed to maybe matter, but certainly not enough times to put much stock in it. So many more things that do show to matter. I still hope for it to work, and always try the moon times going back for fish, but it just doesn't work for me. I like when someone who fishes waaayyyyy less than me tells me how wrong I am because they got a big one once.
I wish it would work better for me, would sure make my life easier. But I go with my experiences and MY actual data. |
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Location: Ontario | Rudedog - 9/28/2022 6:59 AM
I have 20 years of fishing pretty much same days every week, all year long. I fish a lot. I kept pretty detailed records for first 15 years, and still log catches. I can confidently say this whole moon thing has shown to be little to no bearing FOR ME- where I fish- in N. Wi. and Canada. Maybe it matters in MN, it may well- I don't pretend like so many do to know. But for me, its a non factor. There has been a few times it seemed to maybe matter, but certainly not enough times to put much stock in it. So many more things that do show to matter. I still hope for it to work, and always try the moon times going back for fish, but it just doesn't work for me. I like when someone who fishes waaayyyyy less than me tells me how wrong I am because they got a big one once.
I wish it would work better for me, would sure make my life easier. But I go with my experiences and MY actual data.
Couldn't agree more, I gave it my best for years but it just did not make any difference in the fishing.
On the other hand I was always so pumped to go!  |
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Posts: 1937
Location: Black Creek, WI | I kept detailed logs for 20+ years. Never was able to mathematically correlate success with moon phase or even get a gut feel about it. I no longer keep logs but will confess that with today's easy access to moon phase info (simple APP on your phone), now that I can fish on a more regular basis I may let majors/minors influence when I launch the boat on any given day. Still no correlation, in my opinion, but it certainly can't hurt. If it helps you fish more confidently, its gotta help. |
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| I did find my notes on the cloud pattern Heiting mentioned, it was a "mackerel sky". The online source said it is one of the surest indications of a weather change, normally happening about 6 hours ahead of a front. |
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Posts: 2330
Location: Chisholm, MN | I don't keep records so I can't say this with 100% confidence, but I believe I have most of my action when the moon is down and/or a major/minor is happening. It doesn't matter which spot I'm going to or if I'm going back on fish. This is when I get follows and bites consistently. And action typically slows dramatically after moonrise. I am surprised that the data some of you collect doesn't somewhat correlate with the majors and minors. |
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Posts: 166
Location: Alexandria, MN | Just went and looked through a whole bunch of my muskie pics, paying attention to the sky/weather. The pattern seems to be... random. That's the pattern. While I have noticed an occasional window around majors and minors as far as the moon goes, it doesn't seem to repeat itself very often. Weather trumps moon, and even that isn't that consistent. |
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Posts: 121
Location: Twin Cities Metro | Kirby Budrow - 9/27/2022 11:41 AM
What's your sample size?
At this point in the mid-50 fish range (I don't have the data in front of me at the moment). This would suggest the size of the random variance in the catch-per-unit-effort in the 12% range. In other words, if the effect of the moon on musky activity was small, then the signal (extra catches because of moon events compared to "normal" activity levels) would be below the level of the random noise.
My sample size is too small, really; I need more data for sure. That's why I said that it _currently_ shows no correlation. That could change as I get more data. I'll probably run a p-test for significance over the winter. I don't even know how this year's catches have contributed to the data because I specifically DON'T do data analysis during the season. I like to give myself something fun to do that's muskie-related during the winter months.
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