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| Really....what percentage do you think?
I think 60% |
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| Jason, for guys like you and me, I don't think luck ever comes into the equation at all!![:halo:] But for all the other guys out there...well, they only have luck come into play two times, when its bad, and when its good!
The shorter the time duration, the more luck comes has an effect. |
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| Wow Jason I tought you were better then that LOL
I would say closer to 15% maybe but not more.
Let me ad that I am the first one to admit to a lucky catch. [:sun:] |
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| My guess is about 10-15%. That's good AND bad. Sometimes it may run higher or lower, but on the average, that's my guess. [8)] |
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| I really don't view any of it as "luck". I see the big picture as being a result of the law of averages, and percentages. Anything that increases the chance of good outcomes is something you need to do, anything that MAY increase the chance of good outcomes even though you are not positive about it doing so, is something you need to do, anything that may decrease the percentage of good outcomes is something you should not do.
Luck is often referred to as opportunity meeting preparation and generally I think that is true even in musky fishing. To look at a single event, as we often end up doing when musky fishing, is to be somewhat myopic. When I get a single legal on a cold front day in the face of many negatives, just looking at the event ie success, might be viewed as good luck. However if I am fishing 30 or 40 spots, using a good bait, not screwing my spots with bad presentations, am awake when that rare fish that is active actually hits, or pursue the fish until my fishing intercepts the minimal activity period that still occurs that day...it is not luck. I think if it was 60% luck I would be unlikely to do much fishing anymore. |
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| I basically agree w/ 1st6'. The dictionary defines luck as accidental fortune, good or bad, and includes fate/chance. If one goes fishing and catches a fish, there is no luck involved; he/she went out w/ the intention of catching a fish. Now if you were sitting at a stop light and pretending you were casting and reeled a fish in on an imaginary outfit, then I don't know what you would refer to it as; I'd take off running if it were me!
Basically, anytime you go fishing, whether it be bank or boat, cast a bait into the water, hook and land a fish, luck played no part in it; you intended to catch a fish. If you go, and don't catch anything, luck still plays no part in it; for whatever reason, a fish chose not to take your offering, whether it be from a bad presentation, wrong bait, wrong area, etc. The term LUCK is most often used unintentionally as a way of explaining things, whether they be good or bad; I prefer to keep things simple and realistic. On occasion, I will jokingly refer to an article of clothing, bait, spot etc. as "lucky, but in reality, I realize there is no such thing. A possible exception would be LUCKY CHARMS, which are said to be magically delicious.
*If a rabbits foot is thought to be "lucky", wouldn't 3 more of them be even "luckier"...why not hang a whole rabbit around your neck? In conclusion, any time you set out to do something, regardless of results, there is a REASON for success or failure....[::)] |
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| A most astute observation my dear Watson! And a hard lesson learned, that being better to fish w/ the "living" than "hanging" around the dead! One thing does concern me though...women that shun men, and can't relate to them as WHO they may be, regardless of odiferous content or appearance, shallow indeed! I wonder what it would be like to fish w/ a "monkey on your back?" [:)]
*Todays lesson-change, not LUCK, brought about Anons return to semi normalcy! [::)] |
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| I think as we spend more time on the water and figure out more and more about what works and what doesn't, the roll of luck in our fishing diminishes. Confidence plays a much more important role. That being said, a lot of things have to come together before a musky finds the bottom of the landing net, especially on pressured water. Still, I think luck is less than 10% of what makes any of us succesful. I know if I depended on luck, I'd be one sorry S.O.B. out there. I once heard someone say, "I make my own luck with knowledge and preparedness." I like that! |
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| I'm a big believer in the "you make your own luck" train of thought. If your on the water enough, with a decent presentation, in the general area you'll get lucky. |
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| "I'm a believer, I couldn't leave her if I tried"...sorry, the Monkeys played a major part in my education in the 60s. Treats, how can you still coin the term "LUCK", if you are spending time on the water and fishing? Is it just a term, or do you actually consider it"lucky" if a fish is caught? If you are fishing, catch a fish, then it stands to reason that the catch was your intention; if you don't catch one, then it was because there was a reason, not a case of "bad luck". I am a firm believer in that there is a reason, or cause and effect for everything!
* Todays Lesson#2--PERSISTANCE, or lack of, not luck, determines the success of any outing..... |
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| I'd be interested to see the responses of everyone if Jason would have worded his question "How much luck do you think comes into play in a Musky tournament?"
At least 70% |
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| My point is really for ALL muskie fishing!
40% skill
60% Luck
If you think about it, luck means many things. Luck can be weather and cloud cover or wind too.
How you capitalize on what mother nature is giving you is really the skill. |
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| Fun thread ...
Here's my take on "luck" or being "lucky"..
I have scheduled a day off of work in anticipation of a good bite on one of my favorite lakes.
The day comes and just so happens that the weather that day is in favor of a good bite...i.e. "Boy I sure got lucky today"... I see merit in that statement
In the opposite direction one might here something like..
I was cruising accross the lake (wide open of course) and tore up my lower unit on a rock/stump. "Boy I sure got some bad luck"...No you're an idiot for not paying attention to where you are going or running wide open in an unfamiliar area...[:knockout:]
Example 3....
You hook a nice fish and you are doing things correctly in terms of fighting the fish but the fish get's off.
"Shi!", I sure had some bad luck today".... I can see merit in that statement.
But in terms of overall success I gotta agree with 1st6ft and Spongeola I think you get out in most cases what you put in as far as effort.
But yea I think "being lucky" or "coincidence" sometimes plays a roll in the equation but guys who are consistently puting fish in the boat have more than luck going for them, they have knowledge... [8)]
Either way..."Esox Rock, Bring On The Bite".
Curly |
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| I think that at least for me its 100% why. Because I make my own luck, I choose where to fish,when to fish and how to fish.
Jim |
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| I am going with 80%. Anyone who knows me or fishes with me knows that my brother and a friend of mine always catch a fish on an outing with me. They claim that I stink, I claim that its my expert guide service. My brother is known as Horse Shoe!
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| "Luck is the residue of preparation."
or maybe it was prespiration.
My thoughts are that when it comes to fishing, Luck only plays a role in that which we can not control. Weather, whether or not a fish goes on the 8, if the hooks sink home on a strike, and if they do, can she undo them. Yes, we of course do play a part and can effect the outcome, but if that fish truely wants off then there isn't much you can do about it. So my conclusion would be that when it comes to actual contact with a muskie - 70% luck on a successful boating. Putting yourself in a position to make contact - Skill.
Ryan
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| I think your level of experience greatly reduces the amount of luck that plays into your fishing outcomes.
I have a friend that is arguably the best bowhunter in the midwest (that is a quote from deer and deer hunting magazine). He takes several large, record book bucks every year. When I asked him his secret he explained that he tries to eliminate the luck factor. He feels that the more he learns and patterns the deer he is hunting the less luck plays a factor in his success, after all you can only rely so much on luck to make you successful.
I think each and every one of us is in the process of doing the same thing. The more we learn about what makes a fish tick, the more successful we are, and certainly the less luck plays a role in our outcome. If we are able to be on the water for several days, develop a pattern, and catch a fish using that pattern, luck has played a very limited role in your success. You have just used experience and skill to locate and boat a fish. |
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| nwild,
What you mention in your post is exactly why one might find posts from me on the research board that are sometimes controversial.
But to qualify, one may do everything right, and still not get bit.
Drives me nutz> |
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| Once again gentle readers, let us remember that "luck" is defined as "ACCIDENTAL FORTUNE", which leads one to believe that an occurence, such as catching a fish, is nothing more than an accident...luck in its purest definition lends no credence to any level of skill or knowledge whatsoever. Try and see that whether one procures a catch or not, there is a REASON! Try and go 30 days w/out saying "good luck"...daggone nigh impossible, as I too find myself saying it on occasion. Ponder this, and you may see that luck will slowly dissapear from your vocabulary, and you will dig deep for reasons, resulting in answers as to why things happen as they do![::)] |
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| Absolute TRUTH, Sponge.
I try to recreate success, every time. One can only do that if one knows WHY the success story happened.
But one can still do everything right, and not get bit.[:sun:] |
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| The fact that even though one does everything right, and still not get "bit" may lead one to the conclusion that they have encountered "bad luck", which by definition would be "accidental MISfortune"; but once again, there is a REASON for this, and like you said, the clue lies w/ "WHY", or "WHY NOT", not w/ a general term that we all find ourselves using! now to ponder the whys + why nots....[::)] |
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| Two things strike me as strange about this string of posts, first is the near serious nature of several posts in one day by Sponge.[;)] [:0]
The second is the fact that JLong has not ventured in with his opinion on this matter as this seems to be right up the ERC alley. |
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| I'm weighing in on the side of luck has very little to do with catching muskies or any fish for that matter, consistently.
There are a lot of days where I pray for a little luck, however it seem the harder you work the luckier you get! [:bigsmile:] |
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| .........hmm,whats my username?.....couldnt resist. |
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| I have had several instances of accidental fortune this year musky fishing. I try and reproduce all the accidental misfortunes I have experienced in hopes of repeating these accidental incidents which in sense is my way of saying that I use my luck to hone my skills.
"Musky fisherman know how to get lucky" |
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| Wow,
I have avoided this one like the Plague.
Having studied under some of the most spiritual masters of our time; Timmothy Leary, Richard Nixon, Gilligan and The Professor, Beanie and Cecil, and Arnold (shot at a gazillion times with automatic machine guns and never been hit)Schwarzenegger, I have come to my conclusion in this matter.
A: Language is the least reliable source of the truth.
B: Feeling are the most difficult things that can be made into words
C: Luck is a word that best describes successful people that you hate
D: The harder I work at something, the more successful I become.
E: Las Vegas I not a good place to take you family on vacation.
F: We don't really own time, we just try to manage it.
G: What was the question ?
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| I feel there is a very small percentage of luck involved at catching the musky( 1-2%), but this luck only adds to someones fish numbers. What I mean is this. A guy fishing in a tournament casts out a 5 of diamonds Daredevil spoon, yes a spoon, but his cast is stopped abrubtly by a backlash. After he picks out the backlash be begins to reel only to notice there is a fish that struck the lure when he was untangling his mess. He proceeds to boat I believe a 48", and gets a free replica made for the biggest fish in the tournament. This I consider luck.
Similar situation. but different lure. A person fishing the same point as I had a week earlier cast towards shore with a black bucktail, and gets a backlash. Like the previous story, he untangles his mess to notice a fish has engoulfed his lure. He ends up catching a fish that is slightly bigger than 50". That is luck!
I could go on about similar situations from backlashes, fish hitting at boatside when my lure has been sitting like a bobber on the surface about 2 minutes after my retrieve was finished, and more bizarre circumstances. I feel 99% of the time a musky you caught wasn't luck because:
A: You were targeting those fish (As discussed by the all witty Spongemaster)
B: Weather - no matter what the weather was you used knowledge to boat fish
C: You used the FLP concept whether you knew it or not
Now I know people also believe in bad luck, but this is the same situation as good luck. I blamed "Bad Luck" on me missing so many fish this year, but simply put I wasn't doing something right. May it be I wasn't using the correct hookset, hooks weren't sharpened correctly, wrong size/style hook for size/style lure,unattentiveness, etc... I think any "bad luck" is caused 100% by the person! Just my 2 cents worth. |
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