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Posts: 7039
Location: Northwest Chicago Burbs | This question always beguiles me, especially when I'm fishing high-density lakes; when is a pattern a pattern? Is a follow from a small fish, a pattern? Are a number of follows from small fish, a pattern? Regardless of size, if the fish are low and slow when following, is that a pattern? If one monster shows interest in your offerings, is THAT a pattern?
Interested in others' thoughts on this question. |
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Posts: 199
Location: Anchorage | When a specific part of your presentation is moving fish. It could be any type of bait worked slow and deep at the base of a break, the fish relating to shallow/slop cabbage, a specific color being hot. An element of your presentation, that if changed, will stop producing fish. In some situations a pattern is as specific as a cisco Uptown Mag Dawg to the edges of rock structures in 12-15 ft., but usually not. 95% of the time, it simply means locating the active fish. Location, Location, Location.
So sadly, there is no good answer. 
Edited by woody 3/6/2007 10:28 AM
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Posts: 1310
Location: Washington, PA | I would say a pattern is a pattern.......When it is a pattern, it is not a pattern, when it isn't a pattern. IMHO |
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Posts: 2089
| Replication. Yes? Pattern. No? Not a pattern. And yes, muskies eat cheese.How do I know this? I asked 'em. Steve |
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Posts: 32886
Location: Rhinelander, Wisconsin | I'll take a swing at his:
There are long term and short term patterns.
Long term is, for example, like the assured glider/creature bite off the stones of Antigo Island once the lake turns over, every year. The shallow slop spinnerbait bite on Moen once water hits 55 right up until ice.
Short term is a topwater bite in the pen behind the bar on George that sets up after a hot sunny day, lasts the evening, and if cloudy conditions move in the next day is over as fast as it began.
My opinion, worth exactly 1/2 of 1 centavo. |
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Posts: 2427
Location: Ft. Wayne Indiana | a pattern is a pattern when you can do what you did before I produce fish just like before...
1 fish in the boat is not a pattern. In my opinion 3-5 fish per day doing the same thing, is a pattern.
Doing what you did before, whether it is temp related, bait fish related, storm related, cold front related, etc.... Doing it over and over again. I have patterns that work EVERY YEAR, and account for as many as 70 fish in a month.
Being able to repeat yourself is a patttern, 1 day of sucess is not usually a pattern. |
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Posts: 1316
Location: Madison, WI | I'd say the guy next to you is throwing a jointed crankbait and moving fish all day long, meanwhile all you have is a straight crankbait and you don't see a fish all day. My time on the water isn't as extensive as most on the board, but i would think a pattern is catching/moving fish in a succession of days/weeks/or even months. Using the same techniques, presentations, same structure. Basically dialing in all the variances that makes it fishing. Ultimately putting fish in the boat! |
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Posts: 724
Location: Southern W.Va. | If I move several fish on the same type of structure (weedlines, rocky shoals, fallen timber) when other structure seems to hold no fish, then to me, this is a pattern. Getting them to hit is another matter. To me this would be the time to slow down and pick it apart.
Mauser |
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Posts: 2691
Location: Pewaukee, Wisconsin | Consistant repeatability is a pattern. There are lots of patterns that can work during certain times of the season. A pattern to me is a tested consistant way of catching fish.
Example: Burning a bucktail over the weeds when the water temps get up to that level. Or speed trolling over the weeds with spinnerbaits or some other lure. This is a reaction pattern.
Top water pattern:When the water temps get into the 60's and the fish just go nuts on top water bait. Top water pattern.
Trolling pattern:When the fish leave the weeds and start to roam the flats or suspend.
As a guide I have isolated and documented many patterns from Spring sucker bite all the way through the season to the Fall sucker bite. Leaning those patterns and taking notes to help you learn all the little things that make that pattern work is very important. Once you get a pattern figured out the next step is to learn the signs that help you know when that pattern is going to start to get rocking. Getting on the best bite first is huge on pressured lakes. By the time most other fishermen get on that pattern I am already working into the next.
A pattern is a known fish catching method. Learning when and how to pick the best pattern at that time is just fishing. Time on the water is the teacher, or a guide can be too. |
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Posts: 2361
| Mikes Extreme - 3/6/2007 5:44 PM
.A pattern is a known fish catching method. Learning when and how to pick the best pattern at that time is just fishing. Time on the water is the teacher, or a guide can be too.
Have to disagree, and though some may consider it semantics, I think it is important to understanding to have a clear delineation of what is what when talking about fishing. You are talking about a mixture of both patterns and presentations here. and your final paragraph is related to presentation not patterns.
I read the whole thread and I think that pattern boils down to fish location, and fish reaction(things the fish do), and the ability to predict the same from objective findings on the water(bites, follows and lack thereof), and externally acquired knowledge(articles, lectures etc). Understanding patterns allows you to make predictions and generalizations to new situations, and new locations, that can provide a much higher success rate than you will have if you have to fish everything out, and form your knowledge by rote and repetition.
I find I still have a lot to learn and regularly find that there are things going on that I haven't yet considered, or evaluated correctly. I think that is what probably holds everybodies interest in the sport. It isn't repeated success as much as it's finding all the pathways to success, and the search for the most efficient use of your limited time on the water.
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| Two data points do not make a trend. Moving and catching multiple (3 Plus) muskies using the same technique is a pattern. That pattern can be effective that single moment or every season depending on a variety of other environmental factors |
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Posts: 366
| I don't particularly like the term pattern in relating to muskie fishing. I think that there are many tactics/presentations that over time can result in catching muskies. On any given day the likelihood of replicating a specific set of parameters to produce a statistically significant sample size to "pattern" muskies is very unrealistic. The number of variables relevant to muskie fishing versus the number of muskies that you might encounter is not even close to comparable. What one might percieve as a pattern for that day or week, usually boils down to matching two or three variables of the hundreds truly at play. Then saying it was a "wind blown, rock point pattern today" that resulted in two fish in the boat. IMHO ridiculous. I guess it really comes down to how you define what "pattern" means. What does define it? A set amount of time? A specific number of fish? A single bait versus a general type? A single spot, a general area, the entire lake, or an entire region? A type of retrieve? A weather condition? A type of structure? A specific type of vegatation? Size of rock or bolders? My point, in case I haven't been clear enough, is that to say it was a "cabbage bay bite today" when there are countless characteristics to each of those four bays you saw or caught fish are all the same is not accurate. Especially when the fact is that you have no other point of reference and some other guy fishing the same area or lake as you will come home with similar results and a completely different reasoning for his success. Although the only real harm in "patterning" is that may convince yourself of something and overlook the other connections.
Ryan
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Posts: 32886
Location: Rhinelander, Wisconsin | Wizard,
All of what you said, more, and some times less. There are definitely patterns I identify, and can count on them to repeat for me if the conditions that CREATED those patterns repeat. Your comments almost accuse that identifying a pattern out there means not noticing the variables that identify it in the first place.
For example, the high water fall pattern on Wabigoon. The Goon is a flowage, with very poor visibility. The fish I seek there are shallow most of the time, utilizing the shallow weed cover, wood, and some rock. Put those items under 5' of water, and what will those fish do?
It took me several weeks of experiencing water that high and dirty to figure it out. Once I did, every time I've seen it since, I repeat what worked in the 'Eureka week' and lo and behold...success. It's recognizing the many variables that create the pattern---in other words 'reading the water'---that get you there.
Moen, low water, the weeds are shallower than normal as the water recedes, usually because of a drought which again usually means warmer than normal conditions, I know where those fish will be and go right in there after them, but only when certain weather conditions are due to arrive, certain sky conditions...if I see that setting up I go fish it, and do VERY well. That's a pattern. identifiable, repeatable, and consistent. |
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Posts: 906
Location: Warroad, Mn | What patterns I follow are usually based on broad seasonal variations rather than trying to find daily or even weekly patterns. I fish on the LOTWs which has many differant types of structure and fish holding areas. On a daily bases I may find fish in many different locations and location types, hense no real daily pattern.
However, on a seasonly bases there are things that always seem to help you locate fish. Some of these relate to water levels, some of these relate to water clearity, some of these relate to water temperature, some of these relate to weed growth or lack of, and many others. It's a constant learning process.
In many cases it's a combination of many things that create broad patterns, but
not specific daily patterns which I think are somewhat over rated.
Doug Johnson |
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Posts: 32886
Location: Rhinelander, Wisconsin | Doug,
I agree. Daily is way too variable except for the broader 'here's where the fish should be' general pattern.
Sometimes none of them work worth a hoot. Those days I always wonder what I could have done differently. |
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| Broad, seasonal strokes is how I've always looked at it also. I can see how fishing a stocked lake (that's measured in acres) can make patterning fish easy. Lots of different fish do lots of different things, there might be seven patterns that work one day, four the next and ten the day after that. Little stocked lakes, magazines and lure salesmen make a lot of the ''you gotta do this now to catch a fish" I think. We always try to fish and make the fish fit what we've experienced, read or heard. Our way of doing that is saying 'this is the pattern,' when someone can come and do something totally different and do just as well. I'm not in The Club, so that's worth about $0.012. Canadian. |
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Posts: 724
Location: Southern W.Va. | I agree with what Steve and Doug said about patterns developing with the seasons and different weather conditions. However, with me, I'm looking for the "quick fix" in finding a pattering. On a trip like I plan on taking this June in northern Wisc., I will only be there for a week and need to try to find a pattern of sorts regardless of the conditions. It may be a shallow weed pattern or with the passing of a cold front, deeper weed edges or maybe deep rocks. Whatever the conditions , I want to develop a pattern and pedictable location of the fish and then work on getting the fish to bite.
You can't catch them if you can't find them and to me fish location is more than 1/2 the battle.
Mauser |
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Posts: 3867
| A pattern is a pattern when a particular presentation consistently moves fish under similar environmental conditions.
I love Wizard's statement: "On any given day the likelihood of replicating a specific set of parameters to produce a statistically significant sample size to "pattern" muskies is very unrealistic. The number of variables relevant to muskie fishing versus the number of muskies that you might encounter is not even close to comparable."
Seems Wizard knows his stats, he's leaning toward multivariate linear regression. And he's right; there are too many variables to bring the presentation process into "control" such that you can arrive at meaningful confidance levels.
Some people think too much.
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Posts: 389
Location: Presque Isle Wisconsin | Now theres a term I dont hear every day in my boat!! MULTIVARIETE LINEAR REGRESSION. Dammit.. The next time im having a rough day on the water and my clients want to know why the muskies are in a bad mood Im going to scratch my head,gaze out into the distance and say.... Multivariete Linear Regression Gentlemen...Multivariete Linear Regression.Thats what we have unfortunately encountered today!!!
Edited by 7Islands 3/15/2007 7:28 AM
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Posts: 829
Location: Maple Grove, MN | Wow! Lots of talk about patterns.
I think patterning fish is like patterning women. Once you think you have them figured out, they change and they can change quickly. A pattern will often last no more than a few days and rarely more than a week or two. Then things change.
I think its best to look at what was working, but be open to new things. Maybe the fish were shallow yesterday and maybe your wife liked flowers yesterday too, but today the fish are suspended in deep water and your wife is more interested in getting away from the kids for a couple of hours than anything else. Nothing stays the same for long.
I think its best to just go fishing and have fun because having fun is the only pattern you can always count on. 
Edited by Herb_b 3/15/2007 8:06 AM
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Posts: 2753
Location: Mauston, Wisconsin | Harrr, harrr harrr - Howie, I hope your clients haven't read this post or this->http://gking.harvard.edu/files/mist.pdf
If so they may toss you out of the boat. ROFLMAO
"Too often, we learn each others' mistakes rather than learning from each others' mis-takes. " (Gary King)
A pattern is typically associated with repeatability. I don't think it matters whether it's, yearly, seasonal, weekly, or daily. The fundamental issue is whether it's a useful pattern. F.ex. Getting skunked daily is not a useful pattern.
f.ex. Steve's insight that Wabigoon fish are typically shallow. I'll bet you won't very often find SWorrall fishing in 60' of water off a point on Wabigoon.
"Insanity is when you keep doing the same things expecting different results".
Have fun!
Al
Edited by ESOX Maniac 3/15/2007 8:41 AM
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