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Location: Lebanon,Mo | Models are in agreement with the potential for another out-break of very strong storms.Only posting this for the fact alot of you will be on the water come Saturday.Too far from home for me to be chasing this setup,so here are some details....moderate to strong storms will be on going morning,early afternoon and should diminsh and lay out boundries for supercell like storms to initiate late afternoon/evening providing there is enough lift.As of now the tornado threat is low due to low wind shear...BUT the threat for very large hail(2"+) and damaging straight line winds(70mph+) are almost guaranteed due to strong updraft and the linear mode storms will form in to.(like a repeat of what Wisconsin witnessed a couple days ago).Though models can change being this is still appx. over 36 hours out,it will still pack a very large punch.Looks like central Minnesota has the best instability,but southern Minn. cannot be ruled out where lower winds seem more favorable for rotating storms.If the morning models change,I will post an update.Morning convection will play a strong role as what could unfold for tomorrow afternoon/evening........Be safe,and be prepared. |
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Posts: 676
Location: Wisconsin | To highlight the areas....
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Location: Elko - Lake Vermilion | I just got off of the phone with Al Roker, and he said: "Just go fish dude!"
Jerome |
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Posts: 897
| lol, Jerome. Personally, I appreciate these weather blurbs by missourimuskyhunter. Keep them coming man! You've been dead on so far, which is more than I can say for the local guys. |
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Location: Right behind you (tap, tap) BOOO | Amen to that whynot - I like seeing missourimuskyhunters weather details. |
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| Looks like it would be a good idea to hit Tonka up in the a.m.! These updates are nice! |
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Location: Bloomington, MN | I nominate Missourimuskyhunter to be the MuskieFirst Weather Czar! Any updates? |
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Posts: 1316
Location: Lebanon,Mo | UPDATE-
Storms may initiate earlier than thought and 12Z HRRR soundings and 13Z HRRR are showing possible out-break of 3 Supercells to fire ahead of the cold front at the triple point.Current thinking is far eastern ND between Grand Forks and Fargo along the I-29 corridor into central MN. is where these will initiate and will track eastward towards Twin Cities/WI. during the late evening.These will pose some tornado threat and very large hail before going into a bow segment producing damaging winds.Still,this is weather and so many things can be changed in a matter of minutes.At my best guess storms will go up between 2-5 pm and track east/southeast.Tornado watch should be going up in the next couple of hours....Be safe.
My love for Musky Fishing comes in close to my Storm Chasing me and the wife have done for over ten years.By far,Im not a very good forecaster,but have learned alot over the years being out in the plains and witnessing what mother nature can do.
Edited by missourimuskyhunter 7/17/2010 11:42 AM
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Location: Elko - Lake Vermilion | Well since Al Roker doesn't work the weekends I'll heed MMH forcast........
I lived in Tulsa, Ok. for 11 yrs and dodged my share of storms, so I respect what your saying MMH.
I'd still rather be fishing !
Jerome |
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| here's what it looked like in real life out here today...about 5 minutes before the lightning started and chased me off the water.
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Posts: 1184
Location: Iowa Great Lakes | Nasty here in the IGL's, 70-80 mph winds, 3" per hour rain estimates lots of trees and power lines down heard docks are gone in some cases and alot of fancy pleasure boats on the shore ( what a bummer) I was out driving around in it it was nasty, I have seen better visibility during a whiteout than in this rain and wind....
Edited by shaley 7/18/2010 12:37 AM
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Location: Rhinelander, Wisconsin | Ended up flying into Atlanta instead of Minneapolis today from the ICAST show. Wonderful.. |
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Posts: 1184
Location: Iowa Great Lakes | Few pics from the lake this morning, some didn't fare to well....
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Posts: 2752
Location: Mauston, Wisconsin | missourimuskyhunter - Thanks for the warnings. Seems like you're ahead of the curve - maybe great potential for "Fisherman's weather warning website"! I'd subscribe! You were dead on for your WI forecast for the previous event here (Juneau County WI). I have multiple oak trees down and certainly wouldn't want to have been on the water. Wife thought house was going to relocate to next county.
Thank you!
Al
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| He was DEAD on too with the tornados we had last month also.
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