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Muskie Fishing -> General Discussion -> Is it peaking now?
 
Message Subject: Is it peaking now?
Reef Hawg
Posted 12/12/2005 5:01 PM (#168539)
Subject: Is it peaking now?




Posts: 3518


Location: north central wisconsin
To go along with the poll of how long you have been fishing, I'd like to ask you how Musky fishing is, on the lakes you fish, compared to when you started. I know that for me, having started fishing for them in the middle 80's as a kid, that fishing is better on nearly every lake I fish today, that I also fished then. I know I am a better angler today, but obviously with CPR, stocking, education on proper handling, fishing really improved. I know that many places, like MN are obviously better, as most of the lakes did not have fish in them 25 years ago, but could we be seeing the peak? Obviously each water is different, but I almost feel like we could be reaching a peak on alot of waters. Peak numbers, and peak size of the fish that reside in those lakes. What is the best way to stay there? With several lakes becoming more populated with Muskies, could we see sizes start to go down? Could now be the time to catch the biggest fish available on a water like Green Bay, while the population density is still quite low, available forage levels are stil high, and there is very little competition? Was a place like Lake St. Claire once known for heavier fish, though maybe not quite as many, at one point in history to use as a guage? Was average size in lbs. on the amazing NW Angle portion of LOTW higher years ago, or did it stay the same with the density increasing? I am really racking my brain on some of this stuff, know most of it is regional and water specific/dependant, but feel a general concensus of how fishing is today vs. 20 years ago, and what to expect in the next 20 years is interesting stuff. Even with more and more pressure each year on most waters, I like my/our chances!!! (maybe this should have been posed on the big Q thread...)

Edited by Reef Hawg 12/12/2005 5:26 PM
Mikes Extreme
Posted 12/12/2005 6:05 PM (#168545 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?





Posts: 2691


Location: Pewaukee, Wisconsin
Good question for local heavy fished waters.

I have fished Pewaukee Lake for over 30 years and I would have to say the muskies have got smarter and bigger. Some of the fish that were boated the last two years in my boat have been larger than normal. Four 50-plus inch fish and plenty of other good ones in the high 40's.

Why are these fish not caught more than once a year or every other year?

Some of the spots and patterns will get them only during a small window of the season. This leads me to believe these fish are getting smarter and only slip up during certain time.

I have 4 patterns that will often score me a huge fish or two. If the conditions are there it will happen. If they don't work out the bite will not happen that year. The September night bite last year was outstanding, this year it never got going.

I think there is way more huge fish in our waters than we care to believe. It's just getting to them at the times they will make a mistake.

Are the fish getting smarter? They are just fish......Why will some continue to fall for the same baits and the bigger ones just once in a while. Less bigger ones or just smarter.

Why on heavy fished lakes don't some of the bigger fish get caught more than once a year?

With good pictures we should be able to tell if the same fish has been caught again. Say a 50 to 53-inch fish gets caught, someone gets another fish around that size, locals will always try to see if its the same fish or a different one.

I have only seen one fish over 50 caught twice in the same year. Marking showed it was the same without a doubt. Why is there not more repeats?

With water releases, 10 second camera holds, and quick releases I would think the mortality would be low.

I am sure it's better than years ago.

dougj
Posted 12/12/2005 7:08 PM (#168553 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?





Posts: 906


Location: Warroad, Mn
Reef Hawg:

That's sort of the idea that I had when I first posted the question of how many years have you fished for muskie? What I'm sort of trying to guage is what is happening as far as fishing pressure. I do some work for the Ontario MNR each year on the LOTWs and keep track of my hours fished, and fish caught as well as estimated size.

They are interested in the increase in fishing pressure that's occuring, and so am I. I'm still trying to figure out a poll that will show how much fishing pressure is increasing.

I have seen a tremendous increase in the number of anglers and the amount of time they spend on the waters of the NW Angle part of the LOTWs. In my own personal experience and from personal records I see my fishing from a size standpoint getting worse (resorters won't like me saying that). For many years (say from the mid 80's till the late 90's) 10% of the fish I caught in this area were 48" or bigger, I know that sounds almost impossible, but I have numbers that suport that. This I feel was the result of a very low number of muskie fishermen, much decreased commercial fishing, and the C & R ethic that Muskie's Inc helped bring into the muskie world around that time. Plus some very strong year classes.

One of the nice things about a lake that relies on stocking is that you don't have to depend so much on Mother Nature as you do on your states DNR to provide you with next years fish. Natural producing lakes can and do go through boom and bust situations.

I now see my percentage of 48"+ fish slipping to around 3%, which is probably still world class, but not like it was. I still catch about the same number of fish, but not near as many big fish. Will this change again as superior year classes move through? I hope so, but I sort of doubt it? I'm not 100% sure if it's a result of fishing pressure or just flucations in year class strength, but from the number of years I saw that percentage stay true I'll bet it's more than year class problems. We still seem to be reporting many large fish, but is it a function of ever increasing pressure, or a better fishery? Every angler get a little smaller piece of the big fish (or any fish) pie!

I suspect that as fishing pressure increases indivual fishing success will decrease.

Some folks will still catch big fish and no doubt the total of them over the year is more, but it's because there's many more people fishing for them. You always hear about people who are successfull, but don't here much about the people who fail! Because of this it appears that the fishery is getting better, when it's really not. The only way to measure things like this is to measure whats called catch/unit effort, how long did you fish to catch a fish. To make it even more interesting how long did it take to to catch a fish of a certain size?

Even fisheries like Webster are showing signs of fishing pressure. A few year ago a fair number of 50" fish were caught out of this fairly small lake with a very high muskie population. I'm not up on what has happened there the last two years but I haven't heard for any 50's lately. Even though there is total catch and release on Lac Suel that fishery seems to have gone down hill in the past 10 years.

I think many things are now better than they were, but I wonder about ten to twenty years down the road.

To me it seems that the potential for large fish on most lakes is some what limited by the amount of fishing pressure it receives (personal opinion) and fishing pressure seems to be increasing at a rapid pace.


Doug Johnson


Edited by dougj 12/12/2005 7:30 PM
Guest
Posted 12/12/2005 8:45 PM (#168558 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?


Doug

A few random of thoughts.

1) Granted these are stocked fisheries, if you talk at length with folks who originally "discovered" the musky fishery on Vermilion or the N. shore of Mille Lacs years ago, they'd say the same thing you imply: pressure = bad. I share that view, having had some experience with nearly completely unfished muskies on a private lake and contrasting that with fish from heavily fished public water. Night and day.

2) I'm assuming you saw the blurb in In-Fish regarding the number of anglers decreasing, but the hours per anglers increasing. Don't know if that translates to Canada, but would guess this to be the case. Also, I'm not sure about the musky segment of the fishing world, but have heard that this has been a fast-growth segment of the industry. Perhaps someone more informed can shed some light on that?

3) Tournament results reveal the truth about musky fishing. Depending on which state you're fishing, failures outnumber successes by 10:1 on a good day and 20:1 on a normal day. Never mind poor days. Stories about catching nothing or losing the big one get boring...and are not good for building one's ego.

BrianF.



firstsixfeet
Posted 12/12/2005 9:12 PM (#168559 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?




Posts: 2361


This is always an interesting subject. You know the waters I fish down here, and I have watched the pressure escalate each year, especially the spring pressure, and guide pressure, it has gone from 1 guide to now 6-7 guides, with transplant guides also coming down to milk the resource. The guide pressure then blooms into fisherman pressure, as the educated fishing population increases and visits the lake in higher numbers and fishes more effectively. I believe that the increased numbers of hooked fish has decreased the number of larger fish available in this population, and it will continue to decrease as knowledge continues to increase, with the added problem of the catch and kill ethic in that area among the locals who observe the guide and client traffic and then add to the pressure.

I have fished a lake in northern WI since the 80's and watched the pressure on that slowly escalate over the years until the last 4 years when it absolutely has jumped up to what I consider unpleasant levels the last 3 years. My catch and my partner's catch on that lake had pretty well stayed at 50-60% of the fish being 40" or greater, and from .7 to >1 fish per day average catch, every year since the mid 90's. This year my catch rate recovered but the average size was down substantially, the encounters with larger fish down substantially(only saw 3 fish in the 40's range for sure in 8 days), and the pressure was so heavy that some spots which NEVER were visited by anyone but ourselves in past visits, were so heavily fished, I never fished them. That is disturbing. This is also a lake which rarely had a guide on it in past years and now it is unusual to not see at least one or two guide boats out there everyday, and sometimes as many as 5 fishing for musky.

Not to diss you, but I think we have had the conversation about the jump in education and electronics fisherman have today, and the ability to get on spots without any real history of learning the lake. Educated fisherman on good spots tend to be more successful, and success usually reinforces the musky fishing habit and increases the pressure. There seem to be an ever increasing number of guides wanting to make a living off the resource and that is a negative imo, but not something that can be controlled in any reasonable manner. Guides down here equal three men in a boat, and if I remember the famous Doug Johnson mathematical formula for fishing success by casting position(quoting Doug Johnson no less!), the first guy catches 50% of the fish, the second guy catches 50% of the fish and the third guy catches 10% of the fish, so by my figure, if I have to fish behind a guide boat or two, or three at most of my spots during a day, 110-330% of the fish can already be gone!

Interestingly, another lake I have fished over the years, The Chip, from all reports, has less pressure than it did historically when I fished it, haven't hit it recently to find out if that is true.

My catch rates have gone up for several years as a function of fish caught per hours fished, but I believe that overall the populations in the waters I fish are under increasing pressure and hold less large fish than they have in the past, and that my catch will level out and start to decline unless I start using less palatable methods of fishing, such as dedicated trolling time.
If pressure continues to make more and more impact I will probably change fishing grounds or even decrease the time spent on them, substituting some of the many other fisheries I have ignored over the last few years to pursue Musky.
muskyboy
Posted 12/12/2005 9:54 PM (#168565 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?


The best days of musky fishing are right now and only getting better.

Some secret waters get discovered, but if you do your homework, new secret waters always await discovery
jlong
Posted 12/13/2005 7:30 AM (#168580 - in reply to #168553)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?





Posts: 1937


Location: Black Creek, WI
dougj - 12/12/2005 7:08 PM
We still seem to be reporting many large fish, but is it a function of ever increasing pressure, or a better fishery? Every angler get a little smaller piece of the big fish (or any fish) pie!

I suspect that as fishing pressure increases indivual fishing success will decrease.

The only way to measure things like this is to measure whats called catch/unit effort, how long did you fish to catch a fish. To make it even more interesting how long did it take to to catch a fish of a certain size?

Doug Johnson


DougJ poses some interesting questions. I'd like to know if Angling Pressure adversely affects the size of the PIE (total population)? Or perhaps the size distribution of the PIE (fewer large fish)? If not, then angler success is more a matter of competition between anglers to get the biggest piece. But, if the pie gets smaller (smaller population)... or the pieces get smaller (fewer large fish)... then I feel all anglers need to work together to preserve the resource at an optimum level.

I'm not sure why DougJ feels that increased pressure will decrease angler success. But... if its not simply do to sharing the pie with more anglers (spread the wealth), than we have the potential for a serious epidemic. Its one thing to SHARE and equal number of fish.... and those who can "fish better" will be more successful..... but its another to share LESS fish with MORE anglers. If the latter is why your succes decreases.... its cause for alarm.

But how will we ever know? I keep track of my CATCH PER UNIT EFFORT, but most anglers do not. And... I keep track of this for my own personal reasons... rather than to keep tabs on the integrity of the fishery. If every angler kept a log and reported their "catch per unit effort" would this be a valid measurement for the health and well-being of the fishery? I'm not so sure... since the results could get "skewed" as angler education or "skill" increases.... its possible that the "catch per unit effort" would increase.... despite no change in the fish population and size distribution.

So... we are back to asking WHY. If increased angling pressure decreases angler success.... WHY? And what can we do about it?

jlong

Troyz.
Posted 12/13/2005 8:02 AM (#168581 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?




Posts: 734


Location: Watertown, MN
Jlong my guess is that it is both, as the pressure increases on a lake, there are more fish being caught and release in that you probably will see some delayed mortallity, even though we practice the best known catch and release methods know by humas. Also I think Doug's big fish number should have gone down with the increased pressure on the Woods, due to the fact more fisherman are hitting his key spots and catching the 7% of the 48"+ fish, is why his big fish rate has dropped, I would think a normal musky person number would see a greater drop, due to the fact that pressure has increase by over 7% on the Woods, and is a testement of Doug adapting to the conditions and finding new ways of contacting these 48+ fish. I think his number have stayed the same due to fact he is catching secondary fish on a spot were a big girl has just been recently captured that he is not aware of.

Just my thoughts

Troyz
sworrall
Posted 12/13/2005 8:02 AM (#168582 - in reply to #168565)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?





Posts: 32881


Location: Rhinelander, Wisconsin
I thnk the golden age of muskie angling IS right now and into the future. The past, while steeped in story and lore, certainly provided for some large fish. Unfished waters were plentiful, but today we have more muskies than we ever have across the North American continent. Utah, Colorado, and other western staes sport beautiful hybrids, fisheries managers and Muskie club activists have created and managed lakes and reservoirs through the south, and intensive management has improved existing and created new muskie opportunities form the center of the eastern seaboard to Maine.

Muskie and Pike angling is growing in popularity very quickly. Muskie angling is a growth segment of the market, thats certain. More anglers means more pressure in some areas, true, but with the expansion of the muskies range and increase in management intensity comes increased opportunity as well. Is pressure increasing on ALL muskie water? I don't think so, no. As folks focus on the latest hotspot, pressure on others that were 'discovered' in the past wanes. I remember wwhen Sabaskong was the hot destination, then Whitefish Bay. Then it was the Goon ( which has been nearly deserted for years), and Lac Suel, and the Northwest Angle. Then Minnesota's waters that were recently developed matured, and the 'new reservoir' syndrome on metro waters and Mille Lacs and continuing great destinations like Leech, Cass, and Bemidji drew attention, more anglers, more fish were caught as a result, and more anglers will come. If those waters are not protected, the golden age of muskies in Minnesota IMHO will pass.

Pressure on our waters in NE and N Wisconsin waters hasn't really increased all that much. Sure, as lakes develop good year classes of large fish, anglers move around and adapt to where there are trophy opportunities in numbers, but many days I can fish a sysem like Moens, just outside of Rhinelander, George, even Pelican, and see only a couple other muskie anglers, if any. Green Bay? LOTS of new pressure there, it's a new 'hot' area.

Anglers will fish muskies where they live, and take a trip or two a year to dream waters. As new anglers learn how to muskie fish, they will share the local waters.

I think the single largest factor influencing growth in muskie angling is the internet. Instant information, pictures, and the story of the catch instead of rumor of the catch and the long wait between the 'I heards' and the picture in a paper or a magazine circulating. A sense of community across the muskie's range, and there you have it.

Does increasing pressure effect angling success? I would say yes, to a degree. But success, especially with large fish, depends as much on numbers available at any one time as it does anything else. It is very hard to nail down what causes an increase in reports of large fish, any one angler's success catching them during a timeframe as long as a decade or more. As good NR years develop excellent, poor or average year classes and those fish mature, I think that has as much to do with big fish getting caught as anything. Add the increased numbers of anglers on 'hot' waters, and you have more caught and instantly reported. Add 5 years, three poor NR years back 15 or 18 years, and you have a decline no matter. Popularity is fickle, so the crowds focus on the new hot waters of the day, presure drops off, compounding the reduction of reported large captures.

Are the fish conditioning to pressure? What does that mean? Yes, there is some support for certain fish avoiding recapture, and others that are recaptured frequently. Is it conditioning? No, not in the true sense of the word. In order to condition the fish against capture, it would have to be captured far more than one or even a few times; that's the exception, not the rule. If then, a fish is caught several times and the negative experience does create a conditioning possibility, what about a different lure? WOuldn't each lure have a unique signature? Does anyone believe that a fish is able to reason through and develop an 'opinion' on ALL artificial presentations? Or is it that the increase in angling, the resulting increase in lures in the water, and the total exposure ALL the fish have ALL the time simply creates a situation where all of this activity becomes more commonplace and therefore part of the every day atmosphere? A strike, after all, is a stimulous/response. If the stimulous is 'new', the response is stronger than if the stimulous is commonplace, correct? Is it possible that as pressure increases the stimulous becomes more common place, and strike response drops off as well? SO many variables...just the rambling thoughts of one moderately imbalanced muskie angler.
BNelson
Posted 12/13/2005 8:28 AM (#168586 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?





Location: Contrarian Island
Very interesting thread and great reads from the guys above...
One thing I have always found interesting is how some guys don't think pressure has an effect on musky fishing. How can it not have an effect? Look at tournaments...how many times have we heard how pre-fishing guys had all kinds of fish going, tournament after tournament...and then the tourney starts, and 100+ good anglers hit the body of water only to be shut down..? take these same 100 anglers and put them on different bodies of water in the same region and I bet as a whole they catch alot more than they did during the tournament. Maybe my numbers are off but I think the number of man hours invested per fish in tournaments is usually rediculously low...can you chalk all that up to conditions? IMO I think it's from the pressure.

I agree as more bodies of water get "hot" around the midwest and Canada it does disperse the pressure and I think that is a good thing. Not all musky fishermen handle muskies with the great care that most of us do. I believe there is alot of delayed mortality going on...fish too long out of the water, played to exhaustion, vertical holds etc...That is exactly the reason why I don't share some of the lakes I fish with the masses..maybe I'm too cynical, but the last thing I want is to show up on a small lake I have to myself for the most part next year only to see 5 musky rigs on it. Pressure in my book can and does have an effect. One or two 50"ers caught and kept or maybe caught and handled poorly out of a small lake with no stocking is a big deal to me.
I have a few "Lake X's" to mainly myself because I hate the thought of things like that.

I personally don't think it is peaking right now...I'd say once WI gets on track with the right size limits on the right bodies of water and maybe some new stocking practices we might see more and bigger fish in WI...don't get me wrong, WI does have big fish in tons of lakes...but it could have more IMO.



Edited by MSKY HNR 12/13/2005 8:35 AM
VMS
Posted 12/13/2005 10:07 AM (#168598 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?





Posts: 3479


Location: Elk River, Minnesota
There is no doubt in my mind that the pressure a lake receives (from multiple sources...not just our lures) has a negative effect on the fish. A classic example of this has occurred numerous times on many waters, but here is one I will share.

For about 25 years I have fished Baby lake in Northern minnesota which did not have a public access until 1997 when the DNR bought a small tract of land and developed one. In the years that followed, the fishing has gone downhill substantially due to a massive increase in pressure and popularity of being able to go out and catching multiple fish in one outing. It was not uncommon to go out in a 2 hour period and catch at least one fish with action from about 10 - 12 others in the years previous and through about 2000. As the years have gone by (now up to 8 years) my numbers have dropped significantly to the point that no fish are seen on a consistent basis and most of the others I keep in touch with have found the same to be true.

Every year I go to the access on opening day and I kid you not...there will be at least 15 rigs lined up along the road with a fair share coming and going as the day progresses. The access only has spots for about 5 rigs too. By day's end, there has been upwards of 30 different rigs fishing the same spots. As the year goes on, the access still fills up with about 10 rigs or so, but on weekends it's a zoo...Not only with muskie fishermen, but the jetskies, pontoons, and pleasure boaters are out in full as well.

Now keep in mind this lake is only about 700 acres or so with a fair amount of structure, but it is limited. With people staying at the resort, locals who live on the lake, and then the added pressure of the public being able to come and fish the water as well, these fish have seen probably every concotion made thrown at them. If last year were to be an indicator for how bad things have gotten, I managed to catch only 3 fish from the water, with very little extra activity from other fish. Both fishing at night and during the day the results are still the same...the fish are 1) not there due to die off, or 2) have changed locations where pressure is minimal. The problem is, though, there are enough people out there trolling open water as there are those casting to specific locations. And..through the summer, I am willing to bet that every bit of shoreline is pounded about 2 - 3 times a day as is midlake structure.

Does the extra pressure negatively affect the catch rate? You bet!! I am hoping that as the years go by, the pressure decreases (as Steve mentioned) but I have not seen that happen yet....and I don't suspect the jetskis and the pontoons are going anywhere.

To me, this is a sad state of affairs. Unless the popularity drops, I feel that the glory days of lots of fish and big ones are limited.

No doubt: extra pressure = less fish caught
extra pressure = less big fish

Steve
happy hooker
Posted 12/13/2005 10:51 AM (#168607 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?


weve got lakes in the MPL's metro that are NOT what they were 5 yrs ago especially for average size,,theres always been a theory that Minnesotas second generation of stocked fish may not fair has well in stocked lakes,, has the optimum forage and preffered size of forage will be picked through,,Ive lived here all my life and we could catch bullheads on bare hooks in the area lakes they were so abundant,,now you hardly ever see them in musky lakes or the notorious 'bullhead rafts",,Lots of pressure here in Minn now but I think this is the 'boom' stage in the state just like fly fishing 10 yrs ago, and everybody had to have a mountain bike Im betting the surge dies down but the overall number of muskie anglers in Minn still increases but at a slower rate.Best thing for Minn and Canada is to have wisc get there program in the right direction
Reef Hawg
Posted 12/13/2005 11:36 AM (#168613 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?




Posts: 3518


Location: north central wisconsin
Some excellent responses here for sure. One thing I'd like to add is that I am seeing the same type of drop in big fish% on some waters that has pressure now, that once was quite lightly fished. Some are high size limit waters, and some low. The only thing that has changed has been pressure. Could these fish be avoiding pressure more than we think?? We still have(and I think Doug would agree) the good ole days on occasion, making me think the fish are 'still' there in the numbers and size that they once were. Just seems that getting on them in a time of low pressure(quite often due to folks forgetting about certain lakes for awhile), was/is key to consistant success. Getting back to Dougs comments, and the difference between naturally reproducing waters vs. stocked systems. Animals exhibit learned traits over time. Could some learned traits be passed down in Muskies? Could fish be 'remembering' capture or incidence with human contact and be exhibiting avoidance more than we think? I don't they remember all that well, so it puzzles me.

That said, again, the last thing I'm doing is complaining about my Musky fishing. It is as good on almost all waters that we fish, as it has ever been. Just fun to learn what makes them tick, and how to possibly sustain the good with unavoidable pressure.

Edited by Reef Hawg 12/13/2005 4:35 PM
Ty Sennett
Posted 12/13/2005 5:18 PM (#168641 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?


I think the Chip is on it's way to peaking if the release programs stays the way it is. There is a really high number of 40 to 44 inch fish out there right now. More than half the trips this year we boated at least one in the low forty inch range. That was something that I've never done before any year ever on the Chip and I'm guessing no one else has either. If we protect those fish in two to three years we will have an incredible population of 48 inch class fish. So is the Chip at it's peak? yes, and no! Never before has it been easier to put a 40 inch fish in the boat, but with catch and release it will be even better in the upcoming years. I'm excited to see what will happen next year and the following.


Ty
tomyv
Posted 12/14/2005 8:03 AM (#168691 - in reply to #168539)
Subject: RE: Is it peaking now?




Posts: 1310


Location: Washington, PA
I think out east it's state by state. I think PA has peaked, and honestly the fishing is declining. WV is moving quickly on the upswing. for example.
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