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Muskie Fishing -> General Discussion -> What are the odds
 
Message Subject: What are the odds
Cfollow
Posted 3/13/2020 7:51 AM (#955828 - in reply to #955824)
Subject: Re: What are the odds


Mbski - 3/13/2020 7:42 AM

Not denying anything, It’s hilarious that this muskie venue is a concern to some, but just about everyone is going to a grocery store or Costco to load up on goods, and there’s 1000s of people in there touching products pushing around shopping carts only for the next guy to grab the cart or product that was just handled by someone else.


Airborne transmission is the overwhelming primary mode of transmission. Have you seen the lines at the Expo or people bumping shoulder to shoulder in the aisles? I know this is hard but stay focused.
North of 8
Posted 3/13/2020 7:58 AM (#955829 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




In areas where mosquitoes carry malaria, they are very much top of mind. And deer ticks are very much top of mind for folks who spend time outside around where I live in the northwoods. Everyone I know checks the label on insect repellent before they buy. Sure, many people ignore everything, Darwin explained that. Sadly, we keep interfering with his principles. Like warning labels on everything. I have a plaque sitting on my home bar "I am not saying kill all the stupid people, just remove the warning labels and let it sort itself out"

The trick is preventing stupid people from taking the rest of us with them.

Edited by North of 8 3/13/2020 8:10 AM
southern comfort
Posted 3/13/2020 8:04 AM (#955831 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 376


An objective review of what we know as fact today it is highly unlikely that the State will allow any event that puts large crowds of people together in close proximity in the next few weeks. Vendors and busnesses who rely on these shows might as well start right now thinking how to market/sell thier product in different and creative ways.
happy hooker
Posted 3/13/2020 8:07 AM (#955832 - in reply to #955829)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 3136


So this is the equiv of VHS for human's??? We can't be transported out of our own state?? WOW where are Illinois people gonna fish!!!
Mbski
Posted 3/13/2020 8:10 AM (#955833 - in reply to #955828)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 9


Cfollow - 3/13/2020 7:51 AM

Mbski - 3/13/2020 7:42 AM

Not denying anything, It’s hilarious that this muskie venue is a concern to some, but just about everyone is going to a grocery store or Costco to load up on goods, and there’s 1000s of people in there touching products pushing around shopping carts only for the next guy to grab the cart or product that was just handled by someone else.


Airborne transmission is the overwhelming primary mode of transmission. Have you seen the lines at the Expo or people bumping shoulder to shoulder in the aisles? I know this is hard but stay focused.

Yeah no one is breathing at the grocery stores anymore
ToddM
Posted 3/13/2020 8:16 AM (#955834 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 20180


Location: oswego, il
I heard a story today the virus can stay airborne and viable for 3hrs and on some surfaces for 24. Those are optimal lab conditions so yeah, wipe off the handle on the shopping cart.
happy hooker
Posted 3/13/2020 8:17 AM (#955835 - in reply to #955833)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 3136


This topic is getting heated,,let's get together and settle it with a wrestling match.
ToddM
Posted 3/13/2020 8:19 AM (#955836 - in reply to #955825)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 20180


Location: oswego, il
kdawg - 3/13/2020 7:43 AM

A few other considerations when I walk out the door in N. Wis. Deer ticks. Ever hear of them? Lyme's disease,yea. How about mosquitos. Those buggers kill more people in the world other then old age, that's a SCIENTIFIC FACT! I don't recall any outdoor events being cancelled because of the threat of mosquitos. Why not? And around my house, there seems to be a hornet's nest in every other tree, spiders that are almost as big as tarantulas. Black flies that always seem to want to bite you, all kinds of knats buzzing in face, flying up ypur nose and in your ears. I read in the paper in our area of rabid bats to. So, coronavirus, just add it to the list. Come opening day, I will use some common sense, but I'm going fishing anyway. Maybe a little less pressure on the lakes this year. Kdawg



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kdawg
Posted 3/13/2020 8:34 AM (#955840 - in reply to #955836)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 735


Todd M, "there is nothing to fear, but fear itself." FDR, 1932. Kdawg
14ledo81
Posted 3/13/2020 8:50 AM (#955841 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 4269


Location: Ashland WI
"What are the symptoms of COVID-19?

Some people infected with the virus have no symptoms. When the virus does cause symptoms, common ones include low-grade fever, body aches, coughing, nasal congestion, runny nose, and sore throat. However, COVID-19 can occasionally cause more severe symptoms like high fever, severe cough, and shortness of breath, which often indicates pneumonia." -Harvard health publishing-


So we are told the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu (death rate), but yet people could have it and show no symptoms. They could also have it and show (relatively) mild symptoms. Again, not realizing they have it.

"Ohio health officials announced Thursday that the state has five known cases of the coronavirus, but one expert said that the number is likely much higher and estimated 100,000 undiagnosed cases."

If that estimate is correct, I am assuming many of of those 100,000 don't realize they have it.

My point is, if everyone that had it was tested and confirmed, including those that don't realize it, wouldn't that drop the death rate astronomically? Maybe the death rate is actually much lower than 2-4%?




Edited by 14ledo81 3/13/2020 8:52 AM
Conservation Guy
Posted 3/13/2020 9:22 AM (#955843 - in reply to #955841)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 107


the percentage is probably lower, but that gets into the mess of how little of this is even getting tested right now. Again, if you are younger and healthy, there is little risk here, far less than 1-2%, actually more like .2% if you are healthy and under 40. The problem is when you have a chronic condition, like heart disease (at any age) and that number jumps to 10.5% or 7.3% with diabetes (which a lot in this country have). Even if those numbers are cut in half you are still looking at death rates that are 20-30 times higher than the typical flu. Throw in age, and you are looking at a pretty scary illness for a population that is getting older and has higher rates of chronic disease than almost any developed country in the world.

The point is again that for most of us that are relatively healthy and young, this is not a big deal, but we do not live in isolation, and we share this country with people in the above mentioned categories.
ToddM
Posted 3/13/2020 9:36 AM (#955845 - in reply to #955843)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 20180


Location: oswego, il
Satellite images suggest Iran is building mass grave sites. Typical flu, nothing to see here.
kdawg
Posted 3/13/2020 10:18 AM (#955847 - in reply to #955845)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 735


Going back to the original post,what are the odds? Our country has made it through a civil war,two world wars, a great depression, the cold war, race riots, savings and loan scandals, 9-11, Hiv, ebola, zika, west nile, h1n1. We will get through this. Not that I have any faith in politicians or the lying media, but the resiliency of the American people. Kdawg
ToddM
Posted 3/13/2020 10:57 AM (#955851 - in reply to #955847)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 20180


Location: oswego, il
kdawg - 3/13/2020 10:18 AM

Going back to the original post,what are the odds? Our country has made it through a civil war,two world wars, a great depression, the cold war, race riots, savings and loan scandals, 9-11, Hiv, ebola, zika, west nile, h1n1. We will get through this. Not that I have any faith in politicians or the lying media, but the resiliency of the American people. Kdawg


Especially the media telling us this is a hoax or a conspiracy.
Pepper
Posted 3/13/2020 12:03 PM (#955856 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 1516


I would say the odds are 90 percent that by the time the Expo tools around the state or city will not allow gatherings of over 250.
I was out among them this am and no toilet paper to be had at Sams or HyVee paper towels also gone. I would say the odds of getting it by going out today are less then they will be in two weeks.

National emergency going to be declared at 3:00 this afternoon
Good Luck !!!
MartinTD
Posted 3/13/2020 12:27 PM (#955858 - in reply to #955856)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 1136


Location: NorthCentral WI
Pepper - 3/13/2020 12:03 PM

I would say the odds are 90 percent that by the time the Expo tools around the state or city will not allow gatherings of over 250.
I was out among them this am and no toilet paper to be had at Sams or HyVee paper towels also gone. I would say the odds of getting it by going out today are less then they will be in two weeks.

National emergency going to be declared at 3:00 this afternoon
Good Luck !!!


Agreed. Sorry folks, but seeing what's happened in the last 24 hrs I will be shocked if the state will allow it to go on. Whether you agree with that decision or not really doesn't matter. Glad I attended the Wausau show last weekend... Got to love that fear mongering main stream media! It's a good thing that Tom Hanks and Trudeau's wife, etc got it so when they recover just fine people can take a deep breath. Everyone needs to hear more recovery stories like the following:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/woman-tested-positive-coronaviru...



Edited by MartinTD 3/13/2020 12:44 PM
ToddM
Posted 3/13/2020 1:09 PM (#955859 - in reply to #955858)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 20180


Location: oswego, il
Hate and anger should not be your fuel for information.

Edited by ToddM 3/13/2020 1:11 PM
esoxaddict
Posted 3/13/2020 2:08 PM (#955861 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 8721


It's not fear mongering. While it's not a death sentence for most, if enough people get it, it will overwhelm our healthcare system, economy, supply chains, and just about everything else you can think of. When Disney shuts down in the middle of spring break, you know it's worse than many people want to believe.

Nomadmusky
Posted 3/13/2020 3:04 PM (#955867 - in reply to #955824)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 176


Mbski,

Yes there are people in grocery stores getting their essentials before this thing spikes, but one could argue its a necessity that someone has food, toilet paper, Pepto, aspirin etc.. and although I've seen lots of people in the stores I haven't seen thousands at one time, and they all have disinfectant wipes for the handles of the carts and you are also able to keep Social Distancing or population densities lower.

At a show you aren't able to keep population densities or social distancing to a level that is the same as a grocery store. I'm never within six feet talking to someone at a grocery store, but in a conversation at a show I'm at 3.5' inside that 6' circle. I also don't think that every lure. rod, bump board, net, or whatever else it is you look at is wiped down between touches like you are able to do with a cart at a grocery store if you so choose. I'm also not shaking hands with people at a grocery store and even though you can make a conscious attempt at a show I'm sure I will shakes dozens of hands.

It's apples and oranges, pike and Muskies, carp and bass.

There may be a level of panic or hysteria, but numbers, history and facts pulled from China, South Korea, Italy and now the USA show that it is worth the concern and precautions for a couple of weeks or a couple of months to make sure we take as many precautions as possible not to fill up the hospital beds and morgues any faster than we need to because although we weren't personally hit hard by it that we spread it to someone else who's body isn't able to fight it off as well.

That's my take on it.

Kevin
burningdubs
Posted 3/13/2020 3:15 PM (#955868 - in reply to #955817)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 143


happy hooker - 3/13/2020 7:01 AM

I canceled my trip to vegas,,then rebooked at the new rate,,round trip airfare from mpls to Vegas 5days 4nights at ceasars palace $308 total!!!April 23-27
And I'm scoring a below face value ticket to tonight's sold out REO speedwagon show at mystic lake. Wow this is great!!!

REO changed the lyrics!!!
Heard it from a friend who
Heard it from a friend whoooo
Heard it from another coronas going around!!!!


It's a shame you won't be able to make it to REO tonight!
esoxaddict
Posted 3/13/2020 3:18 PM (#955869 - in reply to #955867)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 8721


That's the thing... With a complete lack of testing, flu season, and no real effective quarantine measures, we have no idea how many thousands of people are walking around with it, perhaps with no symptoms, and spreading it wherever they go.

My wife is young. If she is infected, she'll probably get over it and be fine. I'm not. I'm young enough where I'm not super worried about it, but the possibility is there.... But we have a nephew with leukemia, and our parents are in their late 70's. Knowing that we could be infected (doubtful, but possible) in the short term or even now? We are avoiding any contact with our families. It's not "unnecessary panic" at this point, but we'd rather take precautions that seem a bit silly than live the rest of our lives knowing we killed our parents...
North of 8
Posted 3/13/2020 3:23 PM (#955870 - in reply to #955861)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




esoxaddict - 3/13/2020 2:08 PM

It's not fear mongering. While it's not a death sentence for most, if enough people get it, it will overwhelm our healthcare system, economy, supply chains, and just about everything else you can think of. When Disney shuts down in the middle of spring break, you know it's worse than many people want to believe.



I think you touched on an important point many have missed. While driving this morning, heard interviews on BBC with doctors in London and Rome. Both discussed how the health care system only has so much capacity. That was critical to the decision in Italy to lock the country down
The doctor in Italy had an appointment shortly after the interview with someone suspected of having the virus and what protective protocols he would need to follow in terms is grown, gloves, mask, etc.
happy hooker
Posted 3/13/2020 4:01 PM (#955872 - in reply to #955870)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 3136


BurningBuds

yeah,,bummer they canceled on me,,,so much for "Ridin The Storm Out"
sworrall
Posted 3/13/2020 5:06 PM (#955874 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 32800


Location: Rhinelander, Wisconsin
Looks like the NW Sports Show is off.
TCESOX
Posted 3/13/2020 5:19 PM (#955875 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 1188


Put it this way. The BEST case scenario, is that we are over reacting. If we are not.........

Edited by TCESOX 3/13/2020 6:44 PM
Brian Hoffies
Posted 3/13/2020 6:39 PM (#955878 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds





Posts: 1671


People are to smart for seat belts.
People are to smart to quit smoking.


I have complete faith that people will always do whats right for themselves.
RLSea
Posted 3/13/2020 8:36 PM (#955883 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 480


Location: Northern Illinois
If we as the American public act socially responsible, take all the precautions the medical profession tells us to take, and come out on the other side of this pandemic with the naysayers thinking that we overreacted, then we will have done the right thing.
MartinTD
Posted 3/14/2020 7:01 AM (#955886 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: RE: What are the odds





Posts: 1136


Location: NorthCentral WI
There you have it.

Edited by MartinTD 3/14/2020 7:04 AM



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dickP
Posted 3/14/2020 7:11 AM (#955887 - in reply to #955771)
Subject: Re: What are the odds




Posts: 306


Good move Paul.Great response.
Best wishes and good health to all.
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