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Message Subject: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Reelwise

Posted 1/25/2016 9:32 PM (#801183)
Subject: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 1636

This should be fun for those who like to play with numbers and statistics as much as I do.

How many Muskies do you believe will be swimming in these two lakes after the first initial stocking? How many total Muskies do you believe will be swimming in these two lakes after a 10 year period of stocking 10 inch or longer Muskies?

Test Lake 1: 3,000 Muskies are stocked in a 10,000 acre reservoir every other year for 5 years. 15,000 Muskies will be stocked over a 10 year period. Predator fish species that can be found in this lake include Largemouth Bass, Striped Bass, and Flathead Catfish. The lake has a dam and releases a lot of water. Surface temperatures in the summer can reach 80 plus degrees.

Test Lake 2: 100 Muskies are are stocked in a 200 acre lake every other year for 5 years. 500 Muskies over a 10 year period. Predator fish species include Northern Pike and Rainbow Trout. Surface temperatures are typically a non factor.

List your predicted numbers for each individual lake. Please, do not factor natural reproduction in your predictions. If you want, an estimate of how many Muskies you believe Test Lake 1 would lose through the dam and end up in the waters below. Let's say ZERO Muskies die due to angling pressure.

Do you believe more Muskies should be stocked than the above totals? If so, please post some customized predictions with your ideas.

Edited by Reelwise 1/25/2016 9:52 PM

Reelwise

Posted 1/25/2016 10:07 PM (#801185 - in reply to #801183)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 1636

If about 750 Muskies survive every year in Test Lake 1, there will be about 3,750 Muskies swimming through the massive, 10,000 acre water body. That is not a lot of Muskies per acre. You would end the year with 750 more Muskie than you initially stocked in the lake. 1,875 of those Muskies would be considered a good, picture worthy catch by most anglers. I believe this lake could possibly support more Muskies.

If 25 Muskies survive every year in Test Lake 2, there will be about 125 Muskies swimming around this 200 acre lake. That is about a Muskie per acre. You would end up with 25 more Muskies than you initially stocked. About 60 of those Muskies would be considered a quality, fun to catch Muskie.

Big Muskies, Small Muskies, In-between Muskies, Big Fish Spots, Small Fish Spots, Numbers Spots... The possibilities are endless.

I apologize if any of my numbers are a little off

Edited by Reelwise 1/25/2016 11:20 PM

Reelwise

Posted 1/25/2016 10:46 PM (#801190 - in reply to #801183)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 1636

Not as close to a Muskie per acre for Test Lake 2 as I may have made it seem in the post above...

Pointerpride102

Posted 1/25/2016 11:03 PM (#801194 - in reply to #801183)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 16632

Location: The desert

3750/10000=0.375

Reelwise

Posted 1/25/2016 11:19 PM (#801196 - in reply to #801194)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 1636

I knew that.

jaultman

Posted 1/26/2016 7:26 AM (#801210 - in reply to #801196)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 1828

Here's how I'd look at it, but obviously you should use better survival rate estimates.

Zoom - | Zoom 100% | Zoom + | Expand / Contract | Open New window

Click to expand / contract the width of this image

(Lake 1 Muskie Population Estimate.jpg)

Attachments
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Lake 1 Muskie Population Estimate.jpg (51KB - 462 downloads)

dfkiii

Posted 1/26/2016 10:00 AM (#801238 - in reply to #801183)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Location: Sawyer County, WI

In order to accurately model the populations it's important to know what the forage base is and whether the musky in the test lakes are predators or scavengers.

Will Schultz

Posted 1/26/2016 11:28 AM (#801248 - in reply to #801183)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Location: Grand Rapids, MI

Generally accepted for stocked fish is 50-60% mortality in the first year and 20-30% mortality each year after.

Dunlap

Posted 1/27/2016 1:12 PM (#801533 - in reply to #801238)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 284

"In order to accurately model the populations it's important to know what the forage base is and whether the musky in the test lakes are predators or scavengers".

HAHAHA !! That's awesome!!

Edited by Dunlap 1/27/2016 1:13 PM

jonnysled

Posted 1/27/2016 1:17 PM (#801536 - in reply to #801533)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 13688

Location: minocqua, wi.

Dunlap - 1/27/2016 1:12 PM

"In order to accurately model the populations it's important to know what the forage base is and whether the musky in the test lakes are predators or scavengers".

HAHAHA !! That's awesome!! :)

and especially if they have to compete with 20 pound LMB's ... imagine it would be tough making it out of the juvenile stage without being eaten.

chasintails

Posted 1/27/2016 2:05 PM (#801546 - in reply to #801183)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 452

Do either of these test lakes have 100 lbs. Flathead? That could really throw the numbers off.

SixBowls

Posted 1/27/2016 3:05 PM (#801557 - in reply to #801546)
Subject: Re: Test Lake 1 and 2. Predict the Muskie population and overall fishery in these lakes.

Posts: 149

No need to guess.

Lake 1 will have 86 fish over 40".

Lake 2 will have 3 fish over 40".

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